US: ‘Strong El Nino Pattern’ Very Evident Into December But More Northern Blocking January/February?
Now and on into next week, the strongly +AO/NAO will continue to drive a powerful and very zonal upper flow pattern around the mid-latitudes with an El Nino enhanced, hose-like southern branch that’s essentially pumping tropical energy northward into the middle latitudes. This means a continued active but largely mild pattern across North America.
Credit: AccuWeather
The GFS jet stream chart shows beautifully the jet split on approach to the NA West Coast with weaker northern branch lifting up into the Yukon while the much more energetic southern branch roars underneath and drives tropical moisture across the Southern US.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Rain Snow & Ice Cause Big Issues Across Texas, Oklahoma This Weekend
This setup with strong ridging off New England and Canada holding the eastward progression of a potent Central Plains storm with spring-like air lifting ahead and arctic air diving down on the backside, there’s issues with flooding, snow and ice over a prolonged period. A moisture pump extending back into the tropical Pacific that’s essentially stuck has produced another major Texas rain event.
Check out these 2 day totals!
Ice as well as flooding rain is causing issues in Oklahoma this morning.
Incredible icing over many parts of Northwest Texas, Oklahoma.
Calumet, OK
Credit: David Schweitzer @tornado_dave
Downtown Oklahoma City
Credit: KaiserNOkc @KaiserNOKC
El Reno, OK
Credit: Paxton Storm Chasing @PaxPhotography
Another Storm Next Week But Pacific Brand Cold, Not Arctic
More storminess early next week. Storms ride southern branch while northern branch holds true cold well up into northern Canada.
Credit: AccuWeather
Credit: AccuWeather
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GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2m temp anomalies. The majority of the Lower 48 is likely to open warmer than normal through December’s first 10-15 days.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Interesting when looking at the latest Canadian monthlies.
Unsurprisingly it shows a mild, probably stormy December but notice come January and especially February how the positive lifts further north. Ultimately it’s showing more and more winter in January and February.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
See this morning’s video for the discussion.
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