Central Med Low Has Less Limelight Than Joaquin But Poses Much Bigger Threat

Written by Mark Vogan on October 9, 2015 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland, Valentines 2015 with 2 Comments

For many or most, particularly from a media point of view, Ex-Hurricane Joaquin remains the focus and will continue to fall apart as it limps into northwest Spain. Strong winds are sure to drive battering waves against the coast while heavy rain may bring localised flooding inland but the true weather story this weekend is the energy and disturbance lifting out of Algeria that will form a closed low over the Med. This thing will really wind up and tighten over Italy.

This morning satellite shows Joaquin west of Iberia while there’s significant convection erupting along the Algerian coast as low pressure is beginning to form over the Med.

Credit: MeteoGib (Follow @MeteoGib)

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It’s the central Med low and not Joaquin that will cause issues in terms of heavy, flooding rains and strong, possibly damaging winds. With cold Siberian air being pulled south and energy lifting up from a warm Africa, over a still warm Med Sea, you’ve got everything coming together for a deepening low bringing all sorts of problems. That’s why Estofex has raised the threat level to 2.

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Notice how the GFS weakens Joaquin on approach to Spain while it intensifies the low around Italy.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

The below 10m wind gust chart shows the weakening of Joaquin and it’s winds while the Central Med low continues to wind up as it slides east from Italy in into the Balkans.

Credit: AccuWeather Pro

Up close view over the Med, Notice pressure fall as the system pushes north and draws on the cold dropping out of Russia. This will tighten the system and wind gusts of around 50 kts are likely.