This article from the Express caught my eye on a shop newspaper stand this morning.

Thought I would share a few thoughts on this.

While I’m not saying we can’t have a winter in 2015-16, I highly doubt a repeat of 09-10 is on the way. Why? With the exceptions of El Nino, there is little similarity in ocean and solar.

As stated many times before, no two El Ninos are the same, secondly, El Nino is well known to be highly involved in warm as well as cold winters. Position of warm pool in the equatorial Pacific is likely to be crucial this year. Sure, we had a moderate El Nino in 09-10 but warmest waters where in the central Pacific whereas in 97-98 they were hugged up against South America.

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The issue I have with the article in the Express is that it suggests it’s the El Nino which drove the colder than normal 09-10 winter but it’s the combination of many other factors which aligned to bring our coldest winter since 78-79.

Probably the biggest player in my opinion is the solar minimum which was at it’s weakest in over 100 years. Combined with the solar minimum, we had a warm North Atlantic whereas it’s currently much colder (although appears to be warming slightly).

In 97-98, we had a strong El Nino and this year is being compared to that combined with warm AMO, both supported one of our warmest winters

This years El Nino has similarity to 97-98 so why not a warm one rather than extreme cold? The Atlantic is colder, much colder than back in 97-98 but the solar cycle is merely approaching the MIDWAY point between maximum and minimum and until we reach the next minimum which should be between 2020-2022, then I don’t see another 09-10 style winter. Short lived spells of extreme snow and cold? Yes, that IS possible in the upcoming 5 years but my thinking is not of an 09-10 repeat but perhaps a repeat of last year.

The above article from the Daily Express suggests EL NINO will cause a cold winter but as a matter of fact, El Nino is one of multiple aspects to consider. This article doesn’t suggest that El Ninos have been present in both cold and warm winters.

All the above said, the MO model for winter looks rather interesting doesn’t it with a Greenland block/ W Europe trough!!

Jamstec

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