This summer will be known as a highly transient one and because the heat and humidity comes and goes as quick as it has been and will be this week, I think 2015 for many will be quickly put to the back of minds once into the fall season. Short lived ‘hot spells’ are never remembered for long and this will likely be remembered as cool and wet.

It’s just another one of those weeks. An unusually potent low crosses from Canada into North Dakota and is expect to generate powerful winds tomorrow.

However, it’s the associated front which swings southeastwards bringing rain and storms across the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and eventually the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, removing the heat and humidity now building and lifting northward up the Eastern flank of the country. Expect low to mid 90s widely over the Northeast (possibly upper 90s Mid-Atlantic). However, just as it starts to get hot and humid as it should late July, that front pushes through and quickly pushes the heat and humidity out into the Atlantic.

The previous frontal system which pushed through late last week into the weekend has left a piece behind over Florida and with heights building over top and over mid, even upper 80 degree waters, we’re seeing a large-scale rise in convection along Gulf and South Atlantic coasts as well as over much of central and North Florida which only means one thing this time of year. A LOT OF RAIN!

ECMWF surface

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QPF rain totals over next 7 days.

As for development, that can’t be ruled out but modelling remains with more of a soaking rain event but this disturbed and very wet pattern looks to hang around for quite some time and so expect rain amounts to really pile up.

Looks like the heat and humidity sticks around from Texas to North Carolina with mid and upper 90s widely. Atlanta and Houston may eye 100.

Check out the below GFS 2m temp maximums for each of the next several afternoons. Note the rise then fall over the Northeast.

The GFS surface shows the lows crossing Canada and sending fronts southeast initially drawing the heat and humidity north then shoving it out, replacing the Northeast atmosphere with fresher air. However note towards the 168 to 240 hour range how the model picks up on a particularly potent system which drives a fairly significant cool shot south and east. This may bring some sort of flooding rain event east of the mountains then a record challenging cool start to August.

Note the GFS operational really drops the cold hammer down to start August in the East.

2m temp anomalies are impressively cold by day 10-15! Record cold on the way?

Will have more on the potential cold tomorrow.

See today’s video for the discussion.

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