Make the most of this fine, dry and settled weather currently over the UK and Ireland because it ain’t going to last I’m afraid. A sprawling low with the remains of once tropical storm Bill will make for a cool, wet and breezy end to the week and start to the weekend.

While a trough deepens off Europe, heights build further east in response and models remain consistent at driving a monster hot dome over much of the mainland early next week. The latest run of the ECMWF takes heights to an incredible 600dm. That’s about as strong a summer ridge as you ever get and with dry ground over particularly Iberia, heat records are likely to be challenged. However another factor is that the warmest waters compared to normal over the Mediterranean look to align beautifully directly underneath (surrounding Italy) the core of the 600dm high.

This may have potential to challenge all-time records over south-central Europe early to mid next week.

The heat looks to pulse back and forth over the SOUTHERN UK but it appears we lie on the far western flank of the ridge and therefore we see very little of the real and likely dangerous heat. In saying that, we may see London approach or surpass 30C on a day or two early next week but up here in Scotland and back across Northern Ireland and the Republic, it’s looking cooler, windier and often wet with a potential plume of tropical moisture riding the boundary which could lead to a spell of heavy and persistent rain for areas such as the West Highlands of Scotland.

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Here’s a glance at the latest 500mb anomaly charts off the ECMWF.

With this type of high developing, one must look at how much water is in the ground when considering temperature.

Certainly much of Spain and Portugal is drier than normal but it’s 50-50 over towards Italy where the core of the ridge is expected to be, therefore it’s going to be interesting to see just how hot it’ll get.

Here’s a look at the surface maps for the same period and note the off and on wet weather over Ireland and the UK and even into the continent ahead of the major heat which doesn’t truly kick in till late weekend and early to mid next week.

 

The GFS ensemble shows the heat ridges focusing over south-central Europe where I had forecasted it to be a warmer-than-normal summer in this region.

List of all-time heat records for countries across Europe. Info courtesy of Wikipedia.

Europe  Greece	48.0 °C (118.4 °F )	Athens, Greece	10 July 1977[51]
Andorra	38.5 °C (101.3 °F)	Andorra la Vella	?
Austria	40.5 °C (104.9 °F)	Bad Deutsch-Altenburg	8 August 2013[52]
Belarus	38.9 °C (102 °F)	Gomel	7 August 2010[17]
Belgium	38.8 °C (102 °F)	Uccle	27 June 1947
Bosnia and Herzegovina	43.2 °C (111.16 °F)	Mostar (Herzegovina, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina)	31 July 1900
Bulgaria	45.2 °C (113.3 °F)	Sadovo, Plovdiv Province	5 August 1916[53]
Croatia	42.8 °C (109 °F)	Ploče	5 August 1998[54]
Cyprus	46.6 °C (115.9 °F)	Lefkoniko	1 August 2010[17]
Czech Republic	40.4 °C (104.7 °F)	Dobřichovice, Prague-West District	20 August 2012[55]
Denmark	36.4 °C (97.5 °F)	Holstebro, Midtjylland	10 August 1975[56]
Estonia	35.6 °C (96.1 °F)	Võru	11 August 1992[57]
Finland	37.2 °C (99 °F)	Liperi	29 July 2010[58]
France	44.1 °C (111.4 °F)	Conqueyrac / Saint-Christol-lès-Alès	12 August 2003[59]
Germany	40.2 °C (104.4 °F)	Gärmersdorf bei Amberg / Karlsruhe / March (Breisgau) / Freiburg	27 July 1983 / 9 August 2003 / 13 August 2003 / 27 July 2013[60][61]
Hungary	41.9 °C (107.4 °F)	Kiskunhalas	20 July 2007[62]
Iceland	30.5 °C (86.9 °F)	Teigarhorn, Djúpivogur	22 June 1939[63][64]
Ireland	33.3 °C (92 °F)	Kilkenny Castle, County Kilkenny	26 June 1887[65]
Italy	47 °C or 48.5 °C (116.6 or 119.3 °F)	Foggia, Apulia or Catenanuova, Sicily (Catenanuova’s record is disputed)	25 June 2007 / 10 August 1999[66][67]
Latvia	37.8 °C (100.03 °F)	Ventspils	4 August 2014[68]
Lithuania	37.5 °C (99.5 °F)	Zarasai, Utena County	30 July 1994[69]
Macedonia	45.7 °C(114.26 °F)	Demir Kapija, Demir Kapija Municipality	24 July 2007[70]
Malta	43.8 °C (110.84 °F)	Malta International Airport	9 August 1999[71]
Moldova	42.4 °C(108.3 °F)	Falesti	7 August 2012[72]
Montenegro	44.8 °C (112.6 °F)	Podgorica & Danilovgrad	16 August 2007 / 8 August 2012[72]
Netherlands	38.6 °C (102 °F)	Warnsveld	23 August 1944[73]
Norway	35.6 °C (96.1 °F)	Nesbyen, Buskerud	20 June 1970[74]
Poland	40.2 °C (104.4 °F)	Record measured on German territory at that time: Proskau, Landkreis Oppeln, Oberschlesien (now Prószków, Opole Voivodeship). The record in Poland proper at that time was attained on the same day by the village of Zbiersk at 40.0 °C.	29 July 1921[75]
Portugal	47.4 °C (117.3 °F)	Amareleja, Beja	1 August 2003[76]
Romania	44.5 °C (112.1 °F)	Ion Sion, Brăila County	10 August 1951[77]
Russia (European part only)	45.4 °C (113.7 °F)	Utta, Kalmykia	12 July 2010[78]
Serbia	44.9 °C (112.8 °F)	Smederevska Palanka, Podunavlje District	24 July 2007[79]
Slovenia	40.8 °C (105.4 °F)	Cerklje ob Krki	8 August 2013[80]
Spain	47.2 °C (116.9 °F)	Murcia	4 July 1994[81]
Sweden	38.0 °C (100.4 °F)	Ultuna, Uppsala County / Målilla, Kalmar County	9 July 1933 / 29 June 1947[82]
Switzerland	41.5 °C (106.7 °F)	Grono, Moesa District	11 August 2003[83]
Ukraine	42.0 °C (107.6 °F)	Luhansk	12 August 2010[84]
United Kingdom  England	38.5 °C (101.3 °F)	Faversham, Kent	10 August 2003[85]
Northern Ireland	30.8 °C (87.4 °F)	Knockarevan, County Fermanagh / Belfast, County Antrim	30 June 1976 / 12 July 1983[85]
Scotland	32.9 °C (91.2 °F)	Greycrook, Scottish Borders	9 August 2003[85]
Wales	35.2 °C (95.4 °F)	Hawarden Bridge, Flintshire	2 August 1990

Shall be releasing my July Outlook tomorrow morning so stay tuned! Be sure to watch this morning’s video for the latest discussion.

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Tags: Europe heat, europe heat wave, europe weather, mediteranean