For the past several days, the models have hinted at a fairly major storm system developing over the Southeast and riding up the East Coast at the close of April/beginning of May.

While there’s a lot of uncertainty and it’s still a long way off (some 6 days out), based on current projections, this could be a significant wind and rain maker. If northern and southern branch energy phase, heavy snows can’t be ruled out over the Appalachians.

TOP IMAGE CREDIT: WeatherBug

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

The latest ECMWF sees strong feedback of the warm coastal waters just off the EC with deepening well into the 980s. With much warmer than normal water, rainfall could be significant while onshore gales produce coastal flooding and beach erosion.

Here’s a look at the very latest run of the ECMWF surface.

Here’s a look at the 500mb perspective which does show phasing between northern and southern branch.

The 10 day ECMWF snow charts sees decent snows Out West but also sees a covering for the mountains of New England and possibly down the Appalachians as far south as West Virginia/Virginia.

This remains a loaded pattern moisture wise across the South and Southeast next 10 days.

Finally, here’s a look at the 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies North America wide. Note the deep trough sweeping off the East Coast but the negative extending from the Pacific across S Calif and the Southern Plains representing an active southern jet, induced by the rapid warming of the east Pacific!

Be sure to check out this morning’s post showing the Jamstec first winter 2015-16 run with the video discussing this first solution.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]