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Now this would be the kiss of death to winter 2015-16 if true for both sides of the Atlantic!

Several factors would go against a cold winter. That warm NE Pacific and cold North Atlantic would once again support N Pacific blocking/North Atlantic trough wouldn’t teleconnect to a Western Europe trough.

Because of the warm pool positioned near South America, rather than a bitter Eastern US winter like the previous 2, the US would likely join the West of Europe in a warmer/wetter winter with that warm water in-close to SA pumping heat across the US while California gets hit be frequent rain storms.

CFSv2 700m heights show the undercutting negative that would support the El Nino induced wet winter in California, ridging further east and the zonal pattern across the Atlantic into Europe.

Ultimately a strong El Nino like some models are showing would make for a warm winter on both sides of the Atlantic, however a more central Pacific based El Nino episode and warmer North Atlantic, well that would be quite different.

Let’s face it, we’re only in April, still a heck of a long way to go and these models aren’t the best when it comes to their super nino bias.

Big changes are afoot this weekend. We end the week on a ‘high’ with lot’s of sun and warmth but we start next week on a ‘low’ with snow possible over HIGH LEVEL roads. Feeling cold in the arctic wind. Expect highs of only 5-10C widely ‘UK-wide’ compared to 16-22C we have now.

See this morning’s video for the break down of this high pressure pattern.

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