Yesterday Aboyne, Aberdeenshire took the prize as the UK’s first spot to reach the 21C benchmark. Back in late March, I had pegged the ‘end of April’s first week’ as the period to watch for the year’s first warm spell. That appears to have been not a bad call albeit a few days early but this followed a forecasted wet, windy and mild week last week where there was hail, sleet and snow showers and scenes like this.

Just last Wednesday seen temps holding at just 2-4C by day.

This was yesterday.

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The rest of this week looks predictable with low cloud, mist and fog coming and going which gives way to late morning/early afternoon sunshine. Cloud will linger here and there but the strong April sun should help burn back cloud/mist/fog to the coast.

This was the scene here this morning. I expect the sun to be shinning by afternoon.

Expect widespread 15-17C readings, locally 18-22C during the afternoons this week, especially as the ridge core shifts ESE and we pick up a warmer, drier southerly flow. Drier air heats and cools faster that moist air and so watch for warm days but equally chilly nights with rural frost.

While I wouldn’t be surprised to see 23C in Southern England this week, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see 23C on Scotland’s Moray coast or parts of Aberdeenshire ‘down wind’ of the Grampians.

Watching closely the approach of a weather system into the second half of this week, as it approaches, SW winds will increase and given enough sunshine, we could see some ‘surprising warmth. caused by downslope winds along the Moray Coast. Places such as Lossiemouth, Fyvie Castle and Aboyne can get warmer than many expect simply because of downsloping winds ahead of an approaching Atlantic front.

GFS surface charts shows this possible scenario Friday.

10m winds strong out of the south Friday.

2 metre temps Friday PM.

Notice in the below GFS operational 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies that the ridge is strong in the front running 7 days but the following 7 shows a flatter and south suppressed high. That means systems will manage to cross the north easier and so expect a turn to more unsettled as well as cooler across Northern Ireland, Scotland but staying drier, more settled and therefore warmer for much of England and Wales NEXT WEEK. This is a warmer solution for the continent where winter is trying to hold on the to Scandinavia, central and eastern Europe.

Notice the 2 metre temps/anomalies have a west-east split with cooler in the west, warmer in the east. The model is seeing the Atlantic influence return. Whether it’s too fast or not remains to be seen. What will help hold the OVERALL temperature nearer normal will be the fact that nights should cool considerably off the warmth of day. Europe warms up week two thanks to the high building in from the UK, kicking out the chilly trough that’s been dominant.

GFS ensemble shows a more substantial shift SE away from the UK and thus a greater chance of seeing more unsettled weather off the Atlantic once again. While not a bad as last week, it’s quite possible that we go from last week’s very wet, unsettled regime to this week’s settled and warm back to something more unsettled next week. The back and forth scenario I’ve been alluding to.

7-day mean 2 metre temps/anomalies.

Will have more again tomorrow. Be sure to check out this morning’s video for the discussion. Hope your enjoying the holidays.

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