Thanks to the big storm winding up along the Northeast US coast, we may find ourselves in the coldest air mass of winter next week. There’s cross model agreement that the Atlantic high builds northward into Greenland in response to that storm. It essentially creates a ripple in the upper air pattern, forcing warmth north in the upper atmosphere and in turn this forces arctic air south downstream. Potentially the deepest/coldest trough yet for Europe.

TOP IMAGE CREDIT: William Smith @WSmith_Official

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First we need to lay down the snows and that will happen over the next 72 hours as waves run a strong northerly flow down the UK. This lays down the carpet of white!

Projected snow cover by day 7

Notice in the below ECMWF 500mb height anomaly chart that as the East Coast storm carves out a deeper trough, the Atlantic ridge gets pulled back, away from Ireland/UK and therefore a trough appears sending arctic air south.

Here’s the Europe view with same time frames as above.

Now that’s a trough!

Check out the highly amplified, cold pattern establishing day 5-10.

ECMWF has a low of -15C in the West Highlands next Tuesday morning.

-9 on the GFS

See video for today’s discussion.

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