It’s been an interesting winter. Despite a +NAO/AO, we have seen the snow and cold materialise with even the ‘mild spells’ in between producing snow, cold and ice. How so? There are other drivers which are overwhelming this winter’s mean pattern. Cold spell No 4 is on it’s way to end next week and this brings a very chilly open to February and the final month of meteorological winter.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

We’re technically in the ‘milder/westerly’ air flow again now but it all depends on which side of the low your on. Yesterday was milder yet for many of you, it probably didn’t feel too mild in the breeze. Get behind the front and it was back to snowy and very icy conditions. Tomorrow sees the return of mild, wet and windy before more cold follows on Monday. Yes, these mild spells this winter is still bringing cold, snow and ice.

The models remain consistent at bringing the return of much colder air in a more sustained fashion towards next weekend as a strong positive builds north from the Atlantic up into Greenland shutting down the westerlies. This amplifies the upper air pattern and deepens the Western Europe trough with the arctic flow returning.

It looks as though next weekend into the following week sees a and potentially snowy ‘stalled pattern’ where low pressure is positioned over the North Sea while there’s a near 1035-1040 high west over the Atlantic.

ECMWF surface through 240h.

The 500mb height anomalies show the shift back to a much colder pattern very nicely. Check out the strengthening of the positive to the west and consequential deepening of the trough over Europe!

This may well outdo the last cold spell just ended!

Snow cover by day 7.

Day 10.

EPS Control shows an increasingly cold pattern. 5 day means…

See video for discussion.

No post tomorrow. Will have a full update again Monday.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]