Behind today’s storm passing to our north, we see much colder (Canadian-Arctic) air sweeping across the UK/Ireland with increased snow threats. We can expect significant accumulation above 150 metres with smaller accumulation down to lower levels across Ireland, much of Scotland and N England later today through tomorrow.

Surface charts show low thicknesses (representing colder air) with 522 line draped across the southern UK.

Temps of -5 to -10C at 5,000ft.

The next low, which will present more disruption and localised damage will also increase snowfall threats both ahead and behind it’s cold front.

Today’s ‘stormy’ conditions appears to be a test run for a much bigger, more threatening beast come Wednesday into Thursday.

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Moral is, this week’s unsettled to rather stormy weather is colder than last week’s.

GFS shows a substantial increase in snow cover through the next 7 days.

Initial

Mon 19th.

Behind Thursday’s system winds veer northwesterly and so we’ve reinforcing chill coming in from the Arctic.

Here’s another look at that red paint bomb that went off over the Atlantic within the past few days.

That warming over the Atlantic is according to WSO Energy graphs, ‘off the scale’.

Models are showing the sharp return to a -AO and NAO as we enter the second half of January in response to that major warming at 10mb.

Note both GFS ensemble and EPS Control see the height rises over the Atlantic and deepening of the trough over Europe in the day 7-14+

GFS ensemble

EPS Control

Here’s the ECMWF ensemble for day 11-15. Via WSI Energy

See video for discussion.

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Tags: arctic oscillation, north atlantic oscillation, stratospheric warming, sudden stratospheric warming event, uk cold, UK Snow