The Christmas to New Year period I had earmarked a few weeks back for the attack of winter over much of Europe is playing out. The upcoming days days will be a shock to most Europeans following a warm past 12 months. The coldest UK temp up until last night’s -8C at Braemar was a mere -7.7C. Not cold! This week could see several spots with snow cover drop below -10C while the continent sees -20 to -30C in places.

This week’s cold pattern will be something not seen over Europe since winter 2012-13.

This has a lot to do with it!

Last year, strong WESTERLY QBO, this year, strong EASTERLY QBO. Ironic how the negative is approaching the levels seen back in that very winter, 2012-13!

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The coldest weather since late winter 2012-13 is driving in from the northeast now (Siberia) and with an Atlantic low pushing across Ireland and the UK today, we’ve got SIGNIFICANT snow pack building through the next 48 hours.

Check out the snow cover difference within just 2 days according to the GFS.

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for snow across parts of Northern Ireland, much of north Wales and central/southern England through tomorrow morning. 1-3 inches could fall widely down to low levels while higher parts may get 6 inches.

That system could blitz parts of the near continent as this Atlantic moisture slams against some very cold air coming out of NE Europe.

A cold 1040 high builds into the UK and western mainland this weekend into early next week in the wake of the snow event and that means some very cold days and frigid nights under clear sky, light wind, fresh snow cover.

GFS 7-day mean 2-metre temp anomaly

GFS 7-day mean 850mb temp anomaly

GFS ensemble 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies show the northern block with negative underneath.

0-7

7-14

9-16

Look at the similarity with the above GFS ensemble and below CFSv2

 

 

We didn’t see this anytime last winter!

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