Archive for October, 2014
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The latest QPF (Quantative Precipitation Forecast) is printing out the biggest 7-day rain totals over the UK I’ve seen in quite some time. The reason? A boundary with lot’s of moisture and embedded disturbances running along it will become stuck over the N Republic and Scotland. While we’re in for a persistent wet, windy spell starting tonight/tomorrow and quite possibly lasting through […]
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Hope you had a chance to watch last night’s video regarding my latest US winter thoughts. Based on the type of global pattern, solar, east QBO, weak nino (coming on), global sst profile etc… This makes sense. So does this. But this DOESN’T. The CFSv2 contradicts it’s own winter SST forecast. Which is contradicted by it’s upper height anomalies. You shouldn’t see […]
As expected, we’re seeing some major early season snow burying parts of the Alps. All thanks to moisture Gonzalo pushing into the cold, polar air sweeping down from Russia. While the Alps get hammered, so northeast and east Europe shivers. Austria this morning. Image via @Weathertoski It’s not just the Alps or Germany but here’s […]
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This has got to be the toughest winter forecast since starting seasonal forecasts back in 2009. Following a long series of mild winters (except for a few decent cold shots), I called 2009-10 right as the first nasty winter ‘in a long time’. By calling a bad winter in the face of mild was a bold call. It […]
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