There is good agreement in the models that we have a more positive height field coming up in the next week over Western Europe and this should help TEMPORARILY shut down the Atlantic storm train. Even with these -NAO/AO autumn’s, there’s almost always a respite after we see the turn to wet off a warm, predominantly dry summer.

However, the reason I believe this spike is short lived is because the ‘trend’ has been solidly negative and with QBO going easterly, that negative trend shouldn’t change. Expect a week or two of +NAO/AO (if it get’s to that) before a downward trend once again.

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GFS ensemble forecast

Model doesn’t show solid positive with the NAO, so this is worth watching, however the model shows ridging over Western Europe day 7-16 which indicates a positive NAO.

Day 7-14

9-16

This doesn’t necessarily mean dry but more mild with WESTERLY flow. Note the isobars.

ECMWF too has a positive over the UK though not as pronounced as the GFS ens.

CFSv2 has a wet top very wet UK October and November.

Asian snow cover is growing.

Actual snow cover as of yesterday.

ECMWF ‘snow cover’ forecast through 10 days.

This is good for all you cold weather lovers here because we want to see Asia’s snow cover expand. Cold air is stronger where snow is and our coldest possible air during winter is from Siberia. If we get the anticipated -NAO/AO this winter then we should see decent cold blasts come from this very region that’s beginning to turn white and cold.

See video for discussion.

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