A front is currently progressing southeast over the UK, weakening as it does so but left in it’s wake will be a clear, calm and cold early October night.

GFS shows sub-freezing temps tomorrow morning over far north England but I suspect rural parts of Scotland, Northern England will see patchy frost with favoured sheltered areas likely dipping to between 1-3C, making for a chance of light frost.

Note fairly strong surface high which slides in between the front which clears skies out and drops any breeze. Will depend on any lingering cloud as to how cool tonight gets. NOTHING unusual for early October obviously.

The ECMWF isn’t as cool as the GFS.

Here comes the game changer in my opinion.

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Look for a decent soaking for all but heaviest rain and strongest winds (severe gales in far NW) will be over Scotland. Behind the front we’ll have a reality check. Something more typical of the time of year. The Atlantic door is also unlocked and opened right up with the passing of this front. Expect a parade of lows to follow this.

The 85omb temps cool to freezing behind the front. Time to dust of the jackets.

Once that system is clear, another follows.

Then the biggy arrives Tuesday!

Wednesday

While the UK plays catch up with autumn, note the trough and cold drilling into the east of the continent.

With the collision between Atlantic and arctic, check out the snowfall projected by the GFS over southern Norway!

No video today but will have one as usual tomorrow.

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