While I took at look at the ECMWF in the video, I want to show you the GFS here for comparison.

Interestingly The GFS is now in line with the ECMWF with the lingering of the ridge and push back of any disturbed weather trying to come in. This pattern is back to where we where in July when ridging ruled.

As stated about a week ago. The big difference between a July vs September ridge is the difference in year which usually means slower or non-existent burnoff of cloud cover. Why? Because the sun is lower and therefore somewhat weaker. A 1020 ridge is July acts differently to a 1020 ridge now and you usually need a stronger ridge which has a greater depth of sinking air within in which clouds burn off or back to the coast.

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The model does show the ridge strengthening through next week so it’s going to be interesting to see if we can get more in the way of sunshine and not just dry/cloudy weather. Nevertheless, it fine, dry and settled, who needs sunshine right? If you don’t like it warm, this pattern is perfect for you.

So, both GFS and ECMWF take this settled, high pressure pattern right through till at least next weekend and probably beyond. I don’t see a breakdown anytime soon.

I will try to make the Europe posts as interesting as possible in the coming days as you know this pattern can be somewhat benign.

Here’s that forecasted positive NAO showing which supports the Atlantic trough/W Europe ridge!

Often when you can a good July and crummy August, given the global pattern with the nino etc, you often get a spike in NAO and good weather over the UK and West during September.

Here’s the latest GFS surface charts.

Though the QPF shows some rain, bulk is away from the UK thanks to the bubble of high pressure overhead. Plenty elsewhere, especially where they don’t need it.

GFS ensemble MEAN 500mb height anomalies support UK ‘ridge’ through the next 16 days which takes us to the 21st.

See video for today’s discussion and look at the ECMWF perspective.

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