Following a modest summer up and down the East Coast and cool in the Midsection, the models are showing a warm September and Fall for the very areas which have seen little sustained heat and arguably no summer.

Given the large-scale pattern both in the atmosphere and ocean, I agree with the warmer outlook. We saw this flip from cool summer to warm, wet fall back in 2009 and other years with a central Pacific based El Nino coming on.

The immediate East Coast has been a touch warmer than normal but that’s largely down to warm water offshore which has driven dew points up and thus night-time lows up. We haven’t see any extreme heat this summer from Des Moines to DC up to Boston this year. While a warmer pattern is shaping up for the fall, in terms of ‘extremes’, well it’s a little late for upper 90s and 100s.

This may well be the warmest month of 2014 compared to averages and it comes in the first month of meteorological fall.

ECMWF: 7-day mean 500mb height anomaly

Day 0-7

Day 3-10

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

GFS ensemble

Day 0-7

Day 7-14

Day 9-16

Here’s the CFSv2 temps through the next 4 weeks.

Lot’s of rain with this warm pattern through at least the first half, if not majority of September!

As expected, we do appear to0 be seeing a different upper pattern as we head into fall compared to summer with the warm, ridge pattern settling into the East. This occurred back in 2009.

CFSv2 Sep precip.

It’s temperature forecast for the fall is a little all over the place but the Jamstec model I agree with and makes sense.

Here’s what it has for winter. Also makes good sense and similar to 2009-10. WORTH WATCHING!

See video for discussion!

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]