LOW PRESSURE is dominating the UK and West of Europe pattern at the moment and it certainly looks to be a wet weekend in store starting with England and Wales Saturday and Scotland, Northern Ireland Sunday. The ECMWF has a real soaker for Scotland Sunday where 1-2, locally 3 inches may fall directly beneath the core of the system.

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Associated fronts will continue to bring unsettled conditions from Spain to Norway. As for next week, the low fills and moves out and it reall does look to be not a bad week next week as high pressure builds in. Although modelling shows green over Ireland and the UK, I believe there should be plenty of dry, bright and warm weather to be had before the next system pushes in later next week. All in all, the Atlantic is the main driving force these days with the NAO predominantly neutral which is a west-east upper flow pattern from Atlantic into Europe.

Latest ECMWF surface through the next 192 hrs.

The current NAO chart off the GFS Ens shows neutral and a favourable phase for an Atlantic driven setup through the first 10 days of August but note the uncertainty over mid month with some members going neg, others pos.

Notice the NCEP Blocking chart shows ridging building into the UK and West of Europe in the 10-14 day.

No post tomorrow. Full update again Sunday!

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