Though we’ve seen plenty of shower activity in recent days and will continue to do so as there’s a sufficient temperature gradient with height. In the sun it’s felt pleasantly warm but you may have noticed a cooler breeze. That’s because of the below normal upper heights and overall cooler air mass.

The strength of the July sun tends to mask the cooler air masses and slack lows at this time of year, making an ‘unsettled’ spell appear not so bad when you don’t get those heavy showers.

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The pattern through this week changes gear as ridging makes an attempt at the UK from the WSW but low pressure forming over Germany and the Low Countries will drift WEST bringing a rather soggy frontal boundary across the North Sea into the eastern half of the UK in the late Wednesday into Thursday timeframe.

Before the widespread (north-south) rains arrive, Wednesday looks to be the best day with fewer showers and more sun as the atmosphere is temporarily ‘capped’ thanks to a slight height rise and warming at 850mb. This warming of the mid levels makes it harder for the atmosphere to generate lift and therefore showers and t-storms.

So, sunshine and showers today and Tuesday with the best day (widely) on Wednesday before the band of heavy, persistent rain moves in from the NS Thursday. This front progresses west into Friday making for a better day in the east, wet in the west.

Wet Week For Europe

The system that brings all the rain mid to late week will develop with the core lingering over central Europe where the worst will be.

Check out the QPF rainfall through the next 7 days. Flooding a possibility from Ukraine all the way to the Netherlands. Note the 7 inch bulls eye over southern Germany.

Winds increase out of the north down the North Sea as the front tracks westward from the Netherlands and Denmark towards the UK.

Latest GFS ensemble, 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies through the next 16 days.

0-7 day

7-14

9-16

7-day mean 2-metre temperature anomaly

0-7

7-14

9-16

Room for spells of ridging and warmth as well as cooler with increased shower activity. No sign of any significant break down in the pattern we’re currently experiencing.

If in search of something a little more substantial, ridge-wise, check out the latest CFSv2 week 2 or period between July 13-19.

See today’s video for the discussion!

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