While Western Europe continues to enjoy the benefits of high pressure, on the other side of the continent we’ve seen tremendous rains continue to flood parts of the Balkans into Bulgaria and Romania as well as Turkey. Along with the soaking rains, amazingly, we’ve also got scenes like this below up in the mountains. STILL, on June 21 in the higher elevations of Romania snow has been falling and lying. Can’t quite believe that myself, on the longest day of the year too.

The above snow scene is of Costila Peak, elevation 2498 m, Bucegi Mountain Carpathian to be exact.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Here’s the current upper pattern across the continent.

Note the trough continuing to hold over Scandinavia. That’s the system that’s carved out the SE trough and is allowing lows to spin up and bring heavy rains and mountain snowfall to this region. Also note the low spinning just off Portugal, this will present fairly widespread showers and storms.

Here’s the surface chart at 36 hours or Monday afternoon (below). The UK and Ireland stays largely dry, bright or indeed sunny, however a front hugging N Scotland will keep things damp here, showers elsewhere.

Note there’s plenty of showers and storm running from Iberia across S France, Alps into N sections of the Med countries. South of this boundary and down over the Med Sea itself, it’s turns quite hot with temps in the 30-42C range.

48 hrs

Those showers and storms continue heavy with a risk of flash flooding across Portugal, Spain, the Alps into the northern Balkans. Hot for Greece and Turkey as well as the central and eastern Med.

At 72 hrs and high pressure remains in control across the UK.

Unfortunately, the GFS by 96 hrs or Thursday, shows a new low forming over southern Poland which could renew the flood threat across E, SE areas that have already seen nasty flooding already. The GFS also holds onto high pressure across the UK with plenty of warm sunshine and just a few showers. An impressive run of settled weather here along with N France, the Low Countries up into Denmark.

The only real change for us here in the UK that I can see and it’s still a long way out, is next Monday or 192 hrs with a low bringing a decent, widespread rain.

As for the ECMWF however, there’s a break down towards late Wednesday into Thursday for the UK as a low approaches from the west.

96 hrs or 12 Wed.

120 hrs

Quite the difference in solution between the two models as the ECMWF has most unsettled weather over W Europe, not in the E like the GFS has.

Looking ahead and GFS Ens still shows a trough or negative over the UK to commence July. This has been consistent now for a good week or so.

Upcoming 7 day 500mb height anomalies.

Following 7 and high gives way to low.

Does the below normal heights last? I think we’ll see the ridge poke back in as we head through week 2 of July. Model appears to be hinting at this.

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out yesterday’s first thoughts on next winter. Yesterday’s video also discusses some of the aspects I’m currently looking at.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]