It was one of the warmest May’s on record for Southern California, likely a direct result of the past winter pattern, warm waters offshore and of course the severe drought.
Note the warm waters extending from the Gulf of Alaska down to the Baja. Warm water/dry land boost atmospheric pressure which results in warmer/drier than normal conditions.
Those warmer than normal waters supressed the marine layer which usually locks in coastal California during late spring/early summer. More sun along with drought meant more warmth than usual and as a result, it was one of the warmest May’s on record for Southern California.
Source/Credit: NWS
While temperatures have been very up and down in recent weeks, the trend has been for warmer than normal and here comes another major warm spell seen by the CFSv2.
Source/Credit: NOAA
Source/Credit: NWS
TOP IMAGE SOURCE/CREDIT: Richard Vogel/Associated Press
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Note the BELOW normal temps over the Plains. Why? Lot’s of rain is falling here thanks to the latest potent upper low. The breakdown of the severe drought over North Texas into Oklahoma is well under way.
Courtesy/Credit: Weather Nation
The last 3-5 days has seen a lot of rain over the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and this upcoming 3-5 days will remain wet while strong ridging builds heat back into California.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
QPF rainfall
Next 24 hrs
72 hrs
168 hrs
The Southern Plains/Mid-South bowling ball will also support severe weather over the next few days.
Today
Monday
Upper chart off ECMWF at 24 hrs reflects the current and upcoming 1-2 week pattern across the country.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
2-metre temperature anomaly at 24 hrs.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
7-day mean 500mb height anomalies
Warm where dry (Calif), cool where wet (central/southern Plains)
0-7 day
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Little difference in the day 3-10 off the ECMWF.
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GFS ensemble 7-day mean 500mb heights through the next 16 days reflect surface temp profile.
0-7 day
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
7-14
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
9-16 day
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
CFSv2 shows VERY WET corridor between east Montana and Florida for rest of June.
Where wet, it’s cool!
The El Nino is chip away at the Southern Plains drought first. Then as the season wears on and summer turns into fall, so the rains shift west with the breakdown of the semi-permanent Pacific ridge, allowing the easing of drought further west into California.
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