Sorry for no written post yesterday. Was out all day and ended up not getting a chance to post.

This weekend certainly looks volatile for Ireland, UK and western flank of the European mainland. If you live in this region of the world, be aware of some rather ‘active’ weather on the way.

TOP IMAGE: Courtesy/Credit: NOAA

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As the large and sprawling low edges closer to Irish and UK shores, a warm, moist air flow will drive north ahead of the approaching front. The heat and humidity will juice up the atmosphere out ahead but drive a front into that warm, moist and therefore buoyant environment and the stage is set for strong thunderstorm development.

While it’s cool and damp here over Scotland today, tomorrow will see warmth and some sun pretty much throughout the UK with highs in the 18-25C range. It will feel muggy too as the warmth streaming all the way up from Morocco and Algeria crosses the warm western Mediterranean waters.

Here’s the sea level pressure chart for Saturday. Now that’s a deep low for this time of year! That low will drive a STRONG sub-tropical air flow northward.

The 200mb wind stream shows that southerly ‘heat pump’ flow nicely.

500mb chart

850mb temp chart

2-metre temps at 60 hrs.

Surface chart into the day Saturday as the front slides east into the warm, humid environment over the UK!

CAPE (convective available potential energy) will be high Saturday over the UK, highest over France into Belgium and the Netherlands as the ingredients come together with strong daytime heating and energy pushing through with the front.

Like I’ve said. Northern Ireland, the Republic, Scotland and Wales enjoys the warmest day tomorrow (before front hits Sat), could see up to 22C in places but eastern England is likely to warm further Saturday, perhaps as high as 26 or 27C but once that system hits, likely at peak heating, LOOK OUT! Large hail, flooding rains, gusty winds, lightning and even an odd funnel or tornado is possible. Same for France, Belgium and Netherlands into Sunday as temps reach 30 to 34C.

Notice in the 120 hour 500mb chart that even out to Tuesday of next week, that same low remains pretty much fixed and held out over the Atlantic. Why? The ridge over central Europe is acting like a large stone. No way is that heat dome shifting.

Note the warmth up at 850mb over Belgium, Netherland, Germany up into Denmark.

Toasty temps down at 2-metres as a result.

It should still be pretty warm over particularly eastern parts of the UK through much of next week.

Looking Good For UK Next Week!

The ECMWF rebuilds that strong central Europe ridge WEST into the UK late next week.

Surface chart at 168 and 192 hrs (next Thursday, Friday)

Core of ridge is over the UK. This was shown by the GFS ensembles for week 2 despite the CFSv2 not seeing it, remember?

See today’s video for more. Have a great day.

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