After a rather wet start and middle to this week, the pattern settled down nicely into the weekend as Scandinavian high pressure builds into the UK and near continent.

Here’s the GFS 500mb height anomalies through the next 7 days.

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Unfortunately, there has been good consistency with the models on the NAO looks likely remain in a flat line neutral state and that only means one thing, a predominantly WESTERLY/ATLANTIC flow.

Here’s the GFS ensemble day 9-15.

The upper air pattern, surface temperature and rainfall is mirroring where the ground is wettest and driest.

Here’s the GFS surface at 24 hours and note the ribbon of heavy rain running the boundary around the southern flank of the Scandinavian blocking high.

By 72 hrs, heights have sufficiently built that the heavy moisture plume gets cut off and it’s a good end to the week in the West.

Looks like the Western half of the continent will see a flat line in temperatures through the upcoming 8 days according to the GFS.

Amsterdam Meteogram

Day 1-8

It’s always that bit warmer the further east you go. The atmospheric response to the pattern before. We saw that last spring with the driest conditions in the West and guess where the warmest temperatures went too… where the ground is driest, that’s typically where your summer heat heads for.

Moscow Meteogram

Day 1-8

See today’s video.

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