In the past 7 days, we saw an extreme pattern with the heat in the West, chill over the Plains, heat and flooding from the Ohio Valley to East Coast. This week we see a less extreme situation with rainfall and temperature distributed much more evenly across the country. This looks like a promising setup for the worst areas affected by drought.

5-day QPF rainfall

Note the rain expected in the hardest drought affected part of Texas.

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The latest trough diving into Southern California and Southwest could bring some showers, rare for this late but the biggest story will be the much cooler air before the next big warm spell expected just prior to the Memorial Day weekend.

ECMWF 500mb chart

The southward dip in the jet stream will bring welcome moisture up into the drought stricken western plains.

Surface 72 hrs

7-day mean 500mb height anomalies.

0-7 day

Note the negative heights in the Southwest as well as Northeast while the ridge supports a warm Plains.

7-14 day

Week 2 above shows positive heights pretty much coast to coast with interestingly the core up over the N Plains and Ontario. Recovery in heights over the Southwest.

9-16 day

By the 9-16 day period, negative heights with Pacific lows return to the PNW, this would suggest typical heat for California and the Southwest. However, the drought may suggest otherwise given the 850mb temperatures below.

7-day mean 850mb temperature anomalies

0-7 day

7-14

Note the warmest 850mb temperatures across the north as well as where the drought is worst by week 2.

9-16 day

Heat this summer will go to where the ground is dry!

CFSv2 Has Cool, Wet June Coming Up!

CFSv2 June

Temps

Precip

More tomorrow, including video. Have a great evening.

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