We gradually loose the heavy, frequent shower activity as high pressure settled in behind the pesky low which produced 50-60 mph winds through the weekend. That low is low over the Baltic Sea. The counter clockwise flow around that low is drawing cooler air south and with high pressure, that means sun and instability Monday-Tuesday over Ireland, the UK and W mainland Europe.

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Expect more heavy showers and thunderstorms with big convective cells building through the afternoons. We’ve seen this today and yesterday. This happen when you get winds blowing over land that’s heating, which forces air to rise, cool and condense. We further showers through the next couple of days as the mid and upper levels cool and with sun heating the surface, we raise the lapse rate which is a measure of temperature difference with height.

Ultimately the greater the temperature difference, the faster the air wants to rise, increasing the atmosphere’s ability to produce thunderstorms. That shower and storm threat begins to diminish Wednesday as warmer air from the south creeps north with the Azores ridge. This warming of the mid levels, creates a cap, shutting down the upward motion we begin to see a reversal in at atmospheric flow above. Rather than rising air, we see sinking air, which heats as it descends. This reverse flow, shuts down the atmosphere’s ability to produce clouds and showers. Sure we may get puffy fair weather cumulus, but they don’t continue growing and rise into the higher, colder atmosphere, they remain in a warm bubble between 15-20,000ft.

Check out the ECMWF surface chart for tomorrow, note the low over Denmark, that was our dominant feature through this weekend. Note the air flow which is light but out of the north.

By evening and when the air cools, so we loose the convection and skies turn clear. With that cooler atmosphere thanks to the northerly flow, I expect colder nights with increasing frost potential.

At 72 hrs, the cool high makes way for a warmer Azores source but frost looks like more of a threat Wednesday morning as pressure build but the air is quite chilly at 5,000ft. Under calm, clear sky, the chilly air suspended aloft, is allowed to descend towards the surface while any warmth built up in the lower atmosphere through the day, escapes back to space.

Here’s those 850mb temps early Wednesday.

0C at 850 largely covers Scotland but even points further south into England as well as over the near mainland (Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark), frost is quite possible.

At 96 hrs the Azores high is over the UK and with a warmer mid level and plenty of sunshine, temperatures should warm nicely. Perhaps a little cloudier with a chance of light rain over Scotland.

At 120 hrs warm, sunshine dominates the UK and western flank of Europe including Denmark and southern Sweden with highs climbing into the upper teens to low 20s.

Little chance into next weekend with real warmth spreading north all the way towards the arctic circle of Scandinavia.

ECMWF 2 metre temperatures for next Saturday.

The ECMWF, even has Sunday looking excellent beneath high pressure.

Be sure to watch today’s video…

Next Europe item will be available tomorrow morning at 9.15am.

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