This weekend’s potential severe outbreak will likely present an example of the pattern we can expect through the remainder of this spring and summer. By that I mean an air mass battle, power struggle between warmth and humidity trying to naturally build north but it will continuously come up against an overwhelmingly cold air flow streaming south out of Canada.

The CFSv2 500mb height anomalies show that persistent positive heights or blocking over Canada and when you’ve the amount of snow, ice and locked in cold which blocking and that means only one thing, a chilly pattern for the US underneath.

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The initially deliverer of unseasonable chill comes week one with a nice blocking high linking Greenland and western Canada. That forces the refrigerated air over Canada south into the central and eastern US. That comes once this weekend’s system eventually exits. The trouble is, despite the blocking high exiting Greenland, it appears to hold practically coast to coast over Canada, locking in the cold over the US.

GFS ensemble 500mb 7-mean height anomalies reiterate the point.

0-7 day

7-14 day

9-16 day

2 metre temp anomalies reflect the upper pattern

0-7 day

7-14

9-16

Already seeing the exception snow and ice cover to the north and warm water in the GOA doing it’s dirty work and likely will continue to do so throughout the rest of spring and into summer.

Be sure to watch the video…

More tomorrow!

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