We have a spell of more unsettled weather advancing from the southwest late week into the weekend. A fairly deep low will present rather wet and windy conditions to particularly southwestern parts of the UK and Ireland. Gales or even severe gales are expected to affect coastal areas while it will be windy widely.

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This low will sweep a front across much of Europe bringing unsettled conditions widely across the continent.

Here’s the latest GFS surface chart by 36 hrs or later Friday.

The close-up surface chart for the UK shows the centre of the low close to Ireland’s South Coast with pressure down to 988mb. This should generate pretty strong winds with battering waves against sea walls and cliffs. Thankfully we haven’t seen this type of weather for several weeks now.

Here’s the GFS forecasted 10 metre wind gusts in knots by 48 hrs.

The weekend low will take it’s sweep old time slipping away but as it does, the door opens to the much colder, arctic origin air next week.

Here’s the surface chart showing the exiting of the low and southward descent of the cold air.

144 hrs

850mb temps at 156 hrs or during the day Wednesday.

Latest GFS SNOW chart.

Hummm, interesting but again, it shows nothing outwith the UK. Interesting to see the greatest amounts near to London.

Looking ahead to the medium range and it would appear we have model confliction.

GFS operational ‘blocking’ charts show Iberia to UK ridging returning day 8-14 day period. However, the GFS ensemble shows more negative heights and troughing over the UK in the 7-14 day.

Here’s week 2 off the GFS ensemble 500mb height anomaly 7-day mean.

The EPS Control is rather different for the same period.

The GFS ensemble clearly shows the NAO negative with a continued dip into next week before a flip back positive as we head into May. That would support more of an Atlantic trough/W Europe ridge setup.

I think it’s safe to see that we cool down next week and raise instability levels within our atmosphere as cold air sweeps south. As stated clearly in yesterday’s video, this WON’T be a major cold outbreak but a brief shock to the system. Wind will feel cold and showers may bring hill snow and perhaps sleet or snow flakes to lower levels within ‘heavy showers’. Night frosts may well return.

No video today. Back again tomorrow.

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