With the NAO supporting the Atlantic trough/Europe ridge scenario over the next 1-3 weeks, rainfall looks below to well below normal really from Iberia upward.

The CFSv2 500mb height anomalies have a strong positive pretty much directly over the UK over the next 2 weeks and even in week 3-4, it still has positive heights.

SEE TODAY’S VIDEO!

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What’s interesting is that despite the wet past winter, rainfall was below normal in March and for one North London locale, rain has fallen on just 10 out of the last 31 days. Here’s the chart produced by ‘London/S England Weather’ on twitter.

Here’s the CFSv2 500mb height anomalies over the next 4 weeks.

That’s a dry pattern, especially for the SE of Britain into Spain, France up through the Low Countries and across to Germany.

The QPF looks like this over the next 7 days across the continent.

Close up of the UK.

UK next 10 days.

While I’m not going to jump on this and call for a hot, dry summer or even anything like last year BUT, a dry March and April would set up an interesting May.

Are the models seeing this dry spring when they show this?

CFSv2 temps for June

July

Jamstec for June through August period.

Keep in the back of your mind, the importance of rainfall at this time of year with regard to impact on the atmosphere, thus temperature into the summer.

See today’s video for a break down of the upcoming 7 days.

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