Nice warm-up for much of the US today and tomorrow ahead of next storm and cold shot…

Today’s highs widely hit the 60s and 70s throughout the Plains and that record or near record warmth spreads east tomorrow while a storm system crosses the Rockies and winds up.

Current temps.. these are down on earlier highs which topped 73 in Rapid City. 27 above normal and warmest since October!

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Tomorrow

This warmth will quickly get replaced by MORE cold as a storm ramps up over the Plains this week. Both GFS and ECMWF appear on the same page with track which has the low exiting off the Virginia coast but the big variation with the two models is the snowfall print out.

Here’s both scenarios.

ECMWF

Notice the low thicknesses in the storm’s wake, that means some pretty cold air follows over that fresh snow cover.

Here’s those 850 temps early Thursday.

GFS scenario

Notice the low is weaker at around 990 with the GFS verses 984 ECMWF. Again, very cold air for mid March follows.

As stated, both models fairly similar in track but how much snow falls?

GFS is unimpressive.

ECMWF suggests big interior snow which I agree with, especially up in New England where a blizzard is likely given system winding up offshore with howling northeast gale.

As mentioned, it’s going to be cold in the wake of this system. Expect record breaking cold yet again.

Let’s just hope these models are overdone…

ECMWF has crazy numbers over Michigan into Indiana and Ohio Thursday morning in the wake of the storm.

Here’s Friday morning, low 10s for NYC, -5 over parts of Pennsylvania.

Then there’s the possibility of another major system the week after and given the negative trending with the NAO and positive PNA, the crazy snow printed out by the ECMWF in the 7-14 day period may not be completely unrealistic.

Just the AO is shooting into strong positive territory but keep in mind that there has been major cold this winter when the AO has been positive.

As for the NAO, well we have seen a storm on the east coast when there’s been that negative trend, even if it’s not been INTO the negative.

As for the PNA, well it’s positive and a sure sign that there’s a western ridge/eastern trough.

Check this out. Likely overdone but ECMWF is seeing big snow focused further east with second system and over the Big Northeast cities.

Here’s the ECMWF 500mb height anomalies as shown in today’s video.

12 hrs

72 hrs

96 hrs

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Tags: cold, Midwest snow, Northeast snowstorm, polar vortex, snow, US Cold, winter