Before we get to the high pressure and milder weather set to dominate our region this upcoming weekend, this was the scene at the Nevis Range in the Scottish Highlands this past weekend (below). Yes, just another huge dump of snow which forces resort crews to dig chair lifts out. WHAT A SEASON despite the UK witnessing it’s 7th warmest winter on record. You would never think that fact was true if you were at these ski resorts this winter. As stated many times now, constant moisture streaming into a perfect freezing level led to arguably the best Scottish ski season ever.

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Back to the weather through the rest of this week.

Expect wet and at times cool, windy conditions mixed with some sun across Ireland, northern England and Scotland. The later half of this week sees a rather moisture laiden frontal boundary sit for a time over Scotland and Ireland before descending south but fragmenting as it does so. With this feature weakening as it drops south, it will have no trouble shooting back north as a major ridge builds from Iberia up over the UK and Ireland. With this surface, mid and upper level ridge comes warmer air.

QPF rainfall for the next 7 days shows wet conditions over western Scotland but most falls within the next 3 days before high pressure builds in from the south. Notice the lack of moisture over SE and East England/Scotland and also the shift in heaviest precip east of Italy into the Balkans, Greece and Turkey in response to building heights to the west.

Sunday’s first taste of spring will have the warmest temps over the South of England and Wales where we could conceivably hit 18C but into next week, models show the ridge strengthening. As that happens, any pesky front with cloud and rain should clear Scotland, allowing warmer air with temps in the 12-14C range to reach the Glasgow to Edinburgh corridor.

Here’s the ECMWF chart at 72 hrs and note that soggy boundary.

By Saturday it lifts north but despite drier, brighter conditions, thicknesses and 850 temps support a not particularly mild day in the North. (8-10C).

Here’s the 500mb chart which shows energy over the North Coast of Scotland where cloud, wind, rain and even some hill snow may be a factor while the South Coast enjoys spring sunshine.

Notice that the ridge really extends from Iberia all the way to northwest Russia, remaining unsettled over the Med where low pressure remains stuck.

By Sunday (below) the trough to the west deepens and thus southwest winds increase, driving milder air north from the subtropics.

500mb

The ridge core builds to 1040 over the North Sea by Tuesday and with that position, coupled with fairly warm air aloft, we should see a reinforcing southwest flow which should help boost temps widely over Ireland and the UK. Very pleasant conditions throughout the western mainland from Iberia to Denmark too. Cool nights, mild to perhaps warm days with sunshine in abundance.

500mb

Interesting Jamstec outlook for Europe this spring and summer.

As shown in yesterday’s US post, here’s the CFSv2 temps through the upcoming spring and summer months.

Think the model is seeing the EASTERN ridge and with no colour in the West, I think it will have negative heights and as a result cloudier days, cooler temps. Feedback from saturated ground, surrounding water temps. Please keep in mind that these thoughts are initial, NOT a forecast.

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