I have good news for the storm weary! Models continue to turn towards a warmer and drier solution later this upcoming week into next weekend. This may be a trend rather than blip and thus we may well be turning towards a drier and warmer pattern. Hopefully!

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

First we must get through another 3 or 3 days of wind, rain and a back and fourth swing in temperature thanks to a boundary that will ne SW to NE oriented, dividing the north and south of the UK but as we head towards late week, there’s a large scale rise in the height field and with that rise comes sunnier, drier and warmer conditions.

As already mentioned, before we get to those better days, we’ve a fight which goes on this week between low and high pressure with an active boundary slitting the UK in half.

It may be cloudy even in the Southeast but it should be largely dry and mild with highs of 12-15C but head further north up into northern England and particularly Scotland back west across the Irish Sea into Ireland and it’s likely to be wet but not a washout. Winds will be fresher the further north and west you go too.

Here’s the surface/precip maps through Wednesday.

NOW, here’s that building ridge by Thursday into the weekend. It will remain somewhat unsettled north of Manchester.

ECMWF continues to try and hold the boundary over NW Scotland so cooler, cloudier and wetter north of the Glasgow to Edinburgh corridor during all the way to Sat.

Here’s some nice mild 5,000ft temps to go with the ridge Sunday.

Sunshine and a SW flow may send temps to 17, possibly 18C in London, perhaps 14 or 15 in Aberdeen thanks to downsloping off the Grampians.

Focus of Europe’s heaviest rains will shift a little further east this upcoming week compared to what we saw during the last 7. Rather than it being over Iberia, Italy and the central Med, it nearer the Balkans and even eastern Med as the ridge builds over Iberia and the Balearics. Note the wettest conditions for our area is over NW Ireland and western Scotland.

GFS shows low heights and low pressure through the front running 4 days.

Then a change the following 4

The GFS ensembles, likewise support the drier, warmer solution late week into next.

Front running 7 days

7-14

9-16

These warmer, drier conditions will also influence the folks on the near continent. Subscribers in France, Belgium, Netherlands up into Denmark will also see these conditions as well as Ireland and the UK.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]