We’ve entered a more positive NAO phase rather than neutral and this means the jet is taking more of a dip out over the Atlantic and heights build over Europe, the North Atlantic trough has deepened and what we’re finding is a stuck pattern in which multiple low pressure systems form and spiral around a trough positioned west of the UK.

(TOP IMAGE SOURCE: PA/Daily Mail)

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The trough’s eastern flank extends far enough east into the UK which allows one system after the other to sweep in bringing one rain and wind event after another. Always look out on the back of these lows once they push north of the UK, some of these may be able to tap colder air which could present surprise ‘quick… in-out snows’.

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In just the upcoming 5 days, another 3 significant lows hit from the southwest bringing 60-70, locally 80 mph winds and 1-2 inches of rain with each one. The crazy cycle stands firm with no real end in sight. Is this already shaping the upcoming spring and summer pattern? Very likely! While the US sees one snowstorm after the other this week, unfortunately for us, it’s one rain and wind event after another.

A lot of rain still to come in the next 7-10 days.

Next 7

Next 10

Remember, though not looking all that cold, let’s not let our guard down in terms of these systems carrying colder than expected air given where they’re coming from (cold source) and where they’re crossing.. the coldest water in the N Atlantic.

No, I’m not calling for a big widespread snow but trying show you aspects others may be missing. My test was proven Saturday morning when it snowed here and over particularly Highland Scotland with a southwest wind. Expect the unexpected with a few, lower level sleet and snow events not out of the question and from the least likely direction (SW).

Both NAO/AO indices suggest the Atlantic trough/Europe ridge holds and we remain unsettled and that the reservoir of arctic air may be showing signs of pulling back from the mid-latitudes. A large reason for the lack of winter here this year is the failure of the NAO going negative which meant the strong westerlies remained.

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