Here’s the GFS Northern Hemisphere temp anomalies for tomorrow. It’s clear to see where the major cold is right now. Though not extreme in the west, Europe is a good deal colder now than this time a month ago when it showed red over us!

SEE TODAY’S VIDEO!

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As your well aware, winds are beginning to veer easterly as the low drops into France tomorrow. I’m thinking this more drops temperature to the coldest levels of winter so far rather than being much in the way of a snow producer. These ‘colder’ east winds blowing off a snow covered Denmark and southern Norway will add a sting to the air and hold air temps at between 1-3C Thursday after a cold overnight where snow showers may affect some areas, particularly higher ground in the east.

The real test in my opinion could be after the next deep Atlantic low passes this weekend. Modelling has some rather low thicknesses with the powerful west winds on the southern flank and with 850 temps widely at -10 to -15C (larger area and same 5k temp as with east wind), one must watch for snow dropping to pretty low elevations across Ireland and the UK. Perhaps the GFS is overdone with it’s most certainly a more accurate model these days compared to the ECMWF and I’m sure your tired of hearing it, but keep in mind where this air is blowing in from… the atmosphere overall is COLDER now than 4 weeks ago, so despite crossing 2,000 miles of ocean, this may be a bit of a surprise how cold that wind is blowing in from the Atlantic. Keep in mind that these winds if they cross the section of colder water between Newfoundland and southern Ireland, these could have an effect on moderating the chilly air less!

Here’s what I’m getting at…

850 temp by 48 hrs (darker blue is -10 to -15C)

Here’s 90 hrs and note the 850 temp with WSW wind…

Surface thicknesses are in the 522 to 528 range which is plenty low and the greens on the map (below) indicate moisture aboard the strong flow.

By 120, low to the north and more cold air gets driven across Ireland and the UK.

Here’s the GFS snow charts which show snowfall amounts increasing, particularly into the weekend and early next week.

36 hrs

90 hrs

144 hrs

I made mention of the cold waters beneath the warm over the Atlantic which could help sustain the cold flow from North America to the UK.

Check this out..

Now look at the jet stream position at 72 hrs! Yes, it’s blowing North America cold across the colder than normal Atlantic, directly into Ireland and the UK.

Interesting test coming up. Many out there, won’t buy this idea. Let’s wait and see.

Meanwhile, take a look at this incredible image (below) of a buried house in Romania following the recent big winter storm there. Powerful winds generated huge drifts which meant residents in rural parts had to be literally jug out from their homes. Winter sure has made up for lost time across east and southeast Europe.

The upcoming pattern into February is well worth watching as the AO should remain negative with further arctic blast diving into the United States while the NAO goes positive which means the trough digs over the Atlantic. With the jet then continuing to cross the COLDER THAN NORMAL section of the Atlantic from off a cold USA into the UK, we could have some cold episodes with snow potential, yes from an unlikely direction.

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Tags: arctic oscillation, atlantic low, atlantic storm, europe snow, north atlantic oscillation, UK Snow