While high pressure dominates the UK and near continent this week with a stiff push of mild sub-tropical air, it appears the models shift towards more unsettled next week with some pretty intense lows showing up on the models.

It’s still pretty far out yet in terms of accurately predicting intensity but when glancing at both ECMWF and GFS, the models show a VERY deep low crossing the Atlantic and taking aim at Iceland by around 156 hours or by Sunday (GFS), how deep? 944mb, by far the deepest low of the season and this could pose a significant threat to all of Iceland while strong winds and a spell of heavy rain impact Ireland, the UK followed by France, the Low Countries, Denmark and Scandinavia.

The NAO is neutral while the AO is soaring into strong positive territory which supports the more active and zonal Atlantic-Europe pattern through the 7-10 day.

Check out the GFS through 126 hrs.

Due to a large high over Europe, that lows, although continuing to deepen to 944mb, gets deflected away from Western Europe but it forced up into Iceland. Winds would still turn strong, potentially gale-force in the north and west of the UK and Ireland, accompanied by a spell of heavy rain.

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Here’s where the pattern is shown to become more active following the spell of relative calm, another low approaches and takes aim at Ireland by 204 hrs, allowed to take aim thanks to the break down of the Europe high. That looks to be a spell of gales or severe gales along with very heavy, flooding rain.

So, to round up, WEEK 1 (this week) is mild and high pressure dominated while WEEK 2 sees the high shift east making way for a more active Atlantic-W Europe pattern with an increased likelihood of storms or glancing blows but WEEK 3? colder?

The ECM Monthly for Christmas Eve remains cold looking.

CFS Has Cold Look For January

CFS 500mb anomalies.

850 temp anomalies

2 metre temp anomalies

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