Mexico has already seen a LOT of rainfall in recent weeks from tropical systems crossing the country and with another two now sweeping more rich tropical moisture inland, we could see potentially another 20+ inches over the next few days which raises significant concern of flash flooding across a broad area.

We currently have 75 mph Hurricane Ingrid spinning off Mexico’s east coast in the Bay of Campeche while Tropical Storm Manuel hugs the west coast. Both systems pose a life-threatening flood situation with high risk of flash flooding within the heavily mountainous terrain.

Mexico’s mountainous terrain doesn’t help in several ways as already saturated air is forced up against the mountains close to the coast and is forced to rise. By rising, the air cools, condenses and draws more moisture. Another problem is the countless settlements which lie within the mountains which are highly susceptible to flash flooding. The ground is already very wet and so the additional rain has little place to go but to run off.

Here’s a look at the latest satellite image of 75 mph Hurricane Ingrid

Infrared imagery shows deep convection around the centre of Ingrid but outflow from Manuel hugging the Mexican Riviera appears to be keeping Ingrid somewhat at bay in terms of strength.

The GFS shows Hurricane Ingrid making landfall just north of Tampico by 30 hours or early tomorrow morning, likely as a 75 or 80 mph hurricane.

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Here’s the latest forecast track from the NHC.

Tropical Storm Manuel is close to Manzanillo and practically hugging the west-central Mexican coast. Both systems are pumping tremendous amounts of moisture inland.

The below ECMWF rainfall totals looking out 7 days shows 5+ inches widely but we’ve already seen 15.2 inches fall since Wednesday at Matlapa, located in east-central Mexico and that’s BEFORE Ingrid even arrives. I believe it’s possible that we could see upwards of 30 inches of rain over a 7-10 day period.

Colorado Flooding

As for the United States, Colorado has seen it’s share of intense, flooding rains and devastation with mud and rock slides which have wiped out roads and homes. Sadly at least 5 have died due to the flash flooding around Boulder and surrounding canyon communities.

Rich moisture spreading up from the Gulf of Mexico and to a lesser extent, the Pacific has been forced up against the Front Range of the Rockies and by forcing this air up against the mountainous wall, like in Mexico, rains are prolific. The pattern for a solid 3-5 days was stuck, meaning rains were heavy and incredibly persistent and therefore we saw record smashing rainfall amounts.

Check out these huge rain totals from Colorado since last Monday.

Check out this astonishing before and after shot of Big Thompson Canyon tweeted by AccuWeather’s Antonio Sagliani earlier today. Photographer unknown.

Great Week Coming Up For The Northeast

Great week coming up for the Northeast after some showers and chilly wind today with Canadian high pressure building in. Sunshine and few clouds dominate from Tuesday right through till potentially next weekend.

Here’s the GFS surface chart for Wednesday.

Here’s Friday

Colder Times Ahead?

Despite no major trough showing up in the models as of yet (still early), we do however have some quite significant evidence to suggest a cold end to September is on the way.

Take a look at Tropical Storm Man-Yi’s track as it now impacts Japan!

As this is expected to recurve, this should drop a trough into eastern North America in 6 to 10 days from now which suggests below normal temperatures but a much more significant signal to colder times ahead is the NAO/AO and PNA ensembles.

Not only would a significant negative NAO and positive PNA signal support a western ridge/eastern trough over Canada and the US but a negative AO to go with it, suggests COLD too and possibly arctic origin cold too.

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Tags: colorado flooding, Hurricane Ingrid, tropical storm manuel