After looking better and better organised throughout today, Tropical Depression 7 has been declared just south of Puerto Rico and looks set to bring squally weather here as well as to Hispaniola over the next 3-5 days. The system is being closely followed by a larger system on it’s heels and it’s this feature that likely held it back from organising up till now.
You can see the much better organised TD 7 in the below satellite imagery with an area of deep convection directly over the centre. In fact, given the setup and the way this thing has popped and the way it’s looking, it wouldn’t surprise me of this thing gets named in a day or so. If it does, it would be Gabrielle.
The storm is going to take it’s time as it drifts to the WNW, only making it to Hispaniola by the weekend. Despite the lack of organised tropical activity this year, multiple waves have crossed these islands in recent weeks and so a 4-8 inches of rain which will come in quick bursts, the flood threat is high for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of course the higher mountains of Hispaniola could drop upwards of 10 inches here.
In the cloud shot below you can clearly see the much better organised, symmetric look to TD 7 with the larger wave to it’s east which shouldn’t be overlooked either!
With an eastern NA trough dropping down late week and through the weekend, looks like the US coast should be spared from TD7, although that could change if the system takes too long cutting a path through the northern Caribbean islands.
Here’s the path projected by the NHC.
Frost Threat For N Minnesota Thursday AM, Northeast/E Canada Friday AM
The pattern over North America is becoming more amplified as we enter the second half of the week with heat building north in the west and as a result, the trough with the coolest air mass yet is dropping south. It’s not so much cool but the dry air with it that will present a frost/freeze Thursday morning over northern Minnesota where a few places may dip into the 20s and by Friday morning, it’s New England that will shiver with widespread 30s and pockets of 20s.
Here’s the GFS 500mb chart for Friday morning.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
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Look for 90s and 100s over the western plains, central and northern Rockies with record highs possible in Denver up to perhaps Cheyenne.
Temperature departures Friday.
Forecasted lows for the Northeast Friday AM
After the cold start with 50s in the Big Cities, the afternoon will be simply stunning with wall to wall sunshine, little humidity and temperatures in the 60s and 70s!
Friday PM temperatures.
While it’s low to mid-90s Friday, it’s hotter Saturday for the Plains, Rockies.
GFS forecasted highs Sat PM
Unusual Severe Weather Threat For Interior Pacific Northwest
A rather vigorous system driving onshore across the Pacific Northwest will present a severe threat to the interior or areas east of the Cascades into Idaho.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Skipping ahead to next week and the ridge-trough setup has turned around with the trough setting up in the west with the Pacific storm pushing through. This pushes the ridge and warmer, more humid air back into the east.
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