It’s a very unsettled weather map across Europe these days and there is little improvement through the rest of this week as low pressure remains dominant across much of the continent. Chilly air will keep temperatures below average widely except for the Southeast from Greece down through Turkey into the eastern Med. Snow is still falling over the Alps.

The UK is wet today and tomorrow but conditions improve through the second half of the week but nearby fronts from low pressure will always keep a more unsettled theme closeby. In other words we don’t appear to really shake off some sort of unsettled weather from now through Sunday.

Here’s the GFS predicted rainfall totals through 96 hours.

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Notice the bulk of heaviest precipitation focuses on central Europe and the Alps. The best of any dry weather will be confined to southern Iberia and the Southeast where high pressure is in control. It’s quite amazing when you see how unsettled most of the continent is right now with a low near Italy with a larger low further north over eastern Germany. These lows will keep the unsettled conditions going and cooler than normal temperatures. It’s around these lows where we see sunshine and warmer weather.

Here’s the precipitation all the way out to 144 hours and again, precip is heavy right across the continent with a focus on the Alps. Some of this moisture will fall as snow and not just over the highest peaks either.

As I look out over the next 1-2 weeks, the models provide little guidance in where our pattern is going through June. I had a look at the latest run of the CFSv2 and it shows a lot of white with shades of blue which suggests either normal or below normal temperatures through next month and despite the positive NAO to commence June, models show little indication of a ridge building into the UK like I’ve been harping on about for the past 7-10 days. June for some time now has looked cooler than normal and when going by the pattern we’ve seen, you ask yourself the question, why all of a sudden would we turn to a hot, dry and settled pattern for a prolonged period of time? Especially when the NAO is set to go bacfk negative.

In the past 8-10 weeks our weather has been very cool and of course it would appear the UK is on the brink of witnessing it’s coldest spring (March through May period) since 1979. I am asking myself the question, will this summer ever really get going? Although it’s still early on and things can turn. I look at the long range models, the NAO/AO and ENSO and there is little to go by. I guess you could call it frustrating. I called for a cooler than normal spring but also drier than normal. I think it’s safe to say that my ‘cooler than normal’ is correct but I think my ‘drier than normal’ looks like a bust. In saying that, at least it’s not the washout we experienced at this time last year right?

In June 1975 when many parts of the UK recorded SNOW on the 2nd, that summer went on to be hot and dry, so despite the chill of this spring. You cannot go by a cold spring and assume summer will be follow. It’s never that simple. Many who bashed the idea of a cold winter, assumed winter would be just like 2011-12. Of course our winter wasn’t all that cold when combining the Dec through Feb period but it displayed periods of cold with plenty of snow and it was a lot colder than last winter.

The ENSO is very much neutral and I still believe we may see a La Nina develop later this summer if not into autumn. You may think I am somewhat negative tonight with writing this but I am just searching for answers as to what kind of pattern we have further down the road.

The second half to this week is looking better and warmer but fronts will keep both east and west coasts damp at times and as for this weekend into next week, I did call for ridging and warmth in reaction to a rise in the NAO back into positive territory. Despite the ensemble showing positive, the models show little sign of ridging and warmth never mind a more sustained period of warmth but time will tell.

Right now, the pattern to me looks to remain progressive or transient through much of June and perhaps even into July. A day here and there of warmth before the next Atlantic system pushes in.

The lack of guidance is frustrating me today. You get days like that.

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