It’s been a long, cold and snowy winter across much of the US but as temperatures begin to warm, this puts us all in the mood for warmer days, barbeques, the beach and vacation.
As we’re getting deeper into spring, the role of rainfall becomes more and more important as distribution of precipitation can very much determine what kind of summer may be ahead. In this summer forecast I am going to focus on the current pattern and players as well as the drought, where has seen improvement and where has seen conditions become drier.
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Spring snowpack can also play a big role in not only producing flooding and wet soils but can encourage cooler air masses down from Canada well into May, shaping the first half of summer following a cooler than normal spring.
Drought remains severe over the Central Plains but areas to the south and east have seen significant improvement in rainfall deficits over the last 2-4 months. However there are other parts of the country which are becoming drier and drier.
The trend in both NAO and AO has been negative and this has lead to more troughiness over the Eastern half of the country, bringing not only colder than normal temperatures but wetter than normal conditions also while California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado have all gotten off to a record or near record dry start to the year and with medium range models showing more appreciable precipitation from the eastern Plains to Mid-Atlantic, this does not bode well for the West this summer as a dry spring looks likely.
Given the lack of evidence to support a change in rainfall distribution over the next month or so and as the sun angle and pressure heights grow stronger, along with the rise in evaporation rates, I would say to you that, where we see the driest soils, this is where your summer is likely to be hottest while areas from the Plains on east, summer is likely to be nearer normal or below normal as wetter soils will lead to lower heights, with more frequent troughs dropping in along with an increase in thunder/rainstorm activity.
Despite the heat we’re seeing now spreading across the Eastern US, it is looking cooler and wetter than normal through the second half of April and potentially May also with the NAO/AO returning to a negative state. This suggests the West will stay drier and warmer than normal.
CFSv2 forecast for May, shows a warmer West, cooler East
Overall, I believe an area from San Francisco to Wichita will see a very warm summer ahead while it will be nearer normal from Dallas to Atlanta with near normal to slightly above normal precipitation. The Southern Plains will see spells of wet and dry along with a few hot spells.
Spells of hot weather will spread into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes from time to time with far less heat this year into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic compared to the past few summers. No 100s for Philadelphia, New York and Boston this year with only a few in Washington as wetter soils over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley will add much greater amounts of moisture into the atmosphere and thus the sun will have to work just as hard on evaporation as a pose to heating the ground this year.
As for the Southwest up into the Great Basin, this summer could be a long and hot one with many heat records possible from LA to Phoenix up to Denver and back through Salt Lake and Reno.
As for the Pacific Northwest, it’s looking like a fairly typical summer with near average temperatures and rainfall. and this extends east through Idaho, Montana and the Dakotas. The battle ground will be very much over the Plains, hotter in the west, normal to below normal in the east with spells of heat cover an area from South Dakota down to Texas.
Will have an update to this forecast later in spring and early summer.
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I need the same please, Lhyam
Hi Avril. I have also sent you an e-mail!
Once you’ve signed up how long does it take to get the full cocontent?
Hi Yvonne. I have sent you an e-mail with support options to fix this issue.