The Arctic Oscillation is entering the same negative territory as the record depths seen back in 2009-10 and both the UK and USA know what kinda winter that was. The persistence in negative since early February explain why we’ve seen a much colder and snowier second half to winter but it’s the sharp tanking which is aiding in keeping January-level cold with us well into March.
While the AO is sharply negative at the moment, unnfortunately there is a much deeper dip expected over the next week to 10 days, this suggests nothing but more winter for the UK, Ireland, Europe and across to the United States through the remainder of March and into April. It sure has been an incredible end game to winter. While a major blast of arctic air will dive into the Plains and Midwest in coming days and New England awaits another potential snowstorm, across the Atlantic and we here are dealing with January-level cold with heavy, wind blown snow and blizzard conditions thrown in for good measure. It’s amazing to think we are challenging the coldest levels of winter STILL and we’re now into the second half of March. By the end of this week, I believe a more settled spell of weather will push in but with plenty of snow cover and a cold surface high in place, temperatures may dip to similar values we saw last week. -10 to -13C.
Here’s the latest Arctic Oscillation forecast ensemble.
Courtesy of NOAA
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It clearly shows the dramatic dive into rare negative territory, potentially the deepest negative since the 1980s and even surpassing the levels seen in 2009-10, amazing! This suggests plenty more arctic air for the mid-latitudes.
As for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the wheel which often decides whether the Eastern United States and Western Europe gets cold or not also appears to be heading for the deepest negative so far (below). Really incredible stuff and a near guarentee that this cold pattern for both sides of the pond won’t let up till at least early if not mid-April.
Courtesy of NOAA
What is even wilder about all this is the fact that at this time last year. Both USA and UK was dealing with summer-like warmth with heat records tumbling left right and centre across the US while Scotland experienced an all-time record high for March 3 days in a row. This was thanks to the opposite of what we’re seeing now. A strongly POSITIVE AO/NAO combined with drought conditions.
When will spring arrive both continents? Until there is a recovery in both AO/NAO, the cold and stormy pattern is sure to continue but what will be very interesting is just how cold this pattern gets given the fact that we are likely to see the downward fall in both indexes for at least the next week while the natural progression towards warming will also continue.
Could this setup produce an historic cold end to March and start to April? I think that is very possible.
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