The winter that doesn’t want to leave continues and the coming of cold and SNOW is very real through this weekend and especially into next week and yes we’re progressing towards the SECOND half of March. Coldest in 30 years?, very much on the cards. Live in Scandinavia? it’s been and continues to be brutal up there. A record -38.2C was recorded up in northern Finland a few nights back with Helsinki dipping to -9F Thursday morning which is the coldest March reading in at least 20 years.

This is an amazing pattern and even more amazing is the models are bullish in bringing a decent covering of snow to many parts of the UK, possibly Ireland over the next 7 days. Remember what was said way back in early February about the potential for BIG SNOWS given the the type of endgame pattern we have this year. While the overall winter of 2009-10 was far worse than this year, there is no doubt that the end game to this winter is worse than in 2010 and that was no picnic either.

As early as tonight, expect snow to break out over Northern England and Southern Scotland as moisture lifts northwards over the UK thanks to a low centred over the Irish Sea which is dragging cold air south and tapping a lot of moisture and lifting it north into that cold air. As the two meet, a spell of moderate to heavy snow will break out. A very wet night to come for the South with coastal gales likely, but anywhere from the North Pennines, Lancashire (perhaps the central Pennines), expect snow to spread north into Cumbria, Northumberland and the Southern Uplands of Scotland tonight. We could see accumulations to low levels during Saturday morning but certainly above say 500 feet and you may be looking at a few inches, causing problems over higher road routes such as the A66 and M74 etc.

As the low spinning over the UK this weekend eventually migrates slowly ESE over the next several days, it will open the door more for deeper cold to work south again as a strong Greenland block stops a westerly flow but keeps the NNE flow very very alive. The depth of negative in the AO means the intensity of cold is about as bad as it gets for so late in the season.

As low pressure is never far away, we are likely to see a continued snow threat through next week as moisture trying to push in gets met by very cold air.

Here’s the latest GFS & ECMWF on snow projections through next Wednesday.

GFS

114 hr

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ECMWF

114 hr

192 hr

If you haven’t already, be sure to check out last night’s post which explains the reasons for this cold in somewhat more detail.

Here’s the latest ECMWF upper chart through next week. Look’s just as cold as the week just gone!

Sat

Sun

Tues

Wed

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