As we progress towards the weekend, yet another cold shot drops into the East and with the cooldown comes a clipper which should be a rain-snow mix for both Minneapolis and Chicago, the best chance of a few inches will be north of these areas over the next 48 hours. Another system will come out of the Pacific Northwest and cut across a similar path early next week but this system looks to be stronger and should track a little further south. The late bombardment of winter weather will continue through the next 10 days at least as the NAO remains negative. The fact the AO continues to show a further negative what what it is currently, suggests that it’s arctic air that should dive into the trough.

As for the suttle changes that are going on, we are now seeing record WARMTH, yes warmth in the Desert Southwest with temperatures finally showing the 90s from Palm Springs to Phoenix and we should see warming across the South with 90s perhaps extending east of the New Mexico mountains into the Texas Panhandle during Friday.

Plains Goes From Warm Back To Cold, Classic March!

Now before we even get to the weekend, check out the warming going on across the Plains right now, these current temperatures (below) as of early evening! Wow, 70s make it all the way to western and central South Dakota thanks to a strong west, southwest wind and the help of downsloping, well a truely spring fever!

Notice the sharp thermal gradient over North Dakota with 20s and mid-50s close to each other as well as the Billings currently at 65 while it’s 38 in Glasgow. The classic wild swings and sharp gradients of March.

Make the most of this warmth if you live in the Plains as the system which crosses the Northern Tier early next week, presenting several inches of snow from Montana to perhaps New England, will carve out a new trough down over the Plains and with that comes the return of arctic air.

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Here’s the GFS 500mb/surface and snow charts for Monday

Surface

Snow

Note the model has a pretty decent storm over the Northern Plains and a decent 3-6 inch snowstorm from Bismarck to Madison. While the bulk of the snow stays north of Chicago up in southern Wisconsin, Minneapolis, you may see a few inches.

Check out the height falls in the wake of this system by Tuesday morning. Also note what’s preceeding this storm through the Mid-Atlantic up into southern New England!

Here’s Tuesday!

While the GFS isn’t as clear on this but the ECMWF is, there appears to be a front running system which moves into the Mid-Atlantic which could bring a little snow to the Mid-Atlantic, perhaps 2-3 inches over the mountains of West Virginia and NW Virginia up into the Poconos with some wet flakes making it into the Big Cities.

But by Tuesday, just look at the moisture pouring north from the Gulf. As the 540 line swings into the Appalachains, this is a close call from heavy rain to perhaps half a foot of snow. Look at the heights on the rear though, you’ve got the 504 line dropping into Minnesota from Ontario, 518 south of Minneapolis, 522 south of Chicago and 534 south of St Louis. This will be a cold slap in the face to what these folks are experiencing now. The fickle nature of March in the Midwest for sure.

Let’s skip to later next week. Thursday to be exact!

pretty strong storm appears to slam the West Coast bringing a fair amount of Pacific moisture in and all the way to Southern California. Meanwhile, check out the moisture streaming across the Mid South and Southeast, this could be falling heavily amid juicy, warm air. Note the big ridge pumping north through the Rockies. This will bring another surge of significant, likely record warmth to the western high plains with the help of downslope winds.

While the storm slams the West Coast and warmth surge out ahead of it over the Rockies and Plains, the trough remains in the East with a decent cold shot diving into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Remember that NAO is strongly negative and with that block over Greenland and a generally neautral or positive PNA, expect this upper pattern to continue through probably the remainder of March.

Always be aware though that due to that strong negative AO, there is far colder air than normal over Canada and with each passing storm, that cold air, which has been record breaking of late in Manitoba, will dive south.

More later!

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