The stormy conditions currently battering the Canary Islands and extending east into Morrocco and through Iberia, will finally manage to swing an arm of unsettled weather north into the UK by Wednesday as a blocking high finally breaks down after bringing a largely dry weather pattern over the past 2 weeks. This has in fact been Britain’s longest sustained period of dry conditions since last March despite drizzle here and there!

The high’s eastward slide from the UK opens the door to spokes of unsettled weather down over the Canaries weather to advance NE but the stormiest conditions continue to take a southerly Azores to Italy route.

The very unsettled and downright stormy weather will continue to focus on the Canaries, Iberia as well as across Italy and eventually Greece in coming days but with no atmospheric bubble protecting the UK, pieces of energy associated with these vigorous lows will rotate northeastwards. The high repositions over Europe and so central parts remain largely fine, dry and sunny with chilly nights and mild days..

Rather than the typical route across or just north of Scotland, the Atlantic storm track has been stuck much further south than normal and so the Madiera, Azores and Canaries region off the African coast has been in the firing line of stormy Atlantic weather, all thanks to the position of high pressure to the north, indicative of a negative NAO.

More fronts will swing wind and rain across the islands after a very severe batch of weather swept through over the weekend. A months worth of rain fell while gale to hurricane-force winds brought property damage and cut power to thousands. A peak gust of 97 mph was recorded in the La Palma area of Tenerife.

Though no low directly sweeps over the UK, we will get a glancing blow with frontal systems crossing. This brings a return to much cloudier skies with light and scattered rain along with a strengthening south, southwest flow.

The below chart off the GFS shows accumulated precipitation amounts over the next 60 hours, valid through Wednesday. Note it’s still largely dry early on Wednesday across the UK while vast amounts of precipitation streams into NW Africa, Iberia and the South of France.

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Here’s for the next 96 hours. Note the high has indeed shifted east and wet returns to the UK again but not a huge amount of water falls as the front which moves in is relatively weak. Just look at the concentration of water piling onto the west coast of Portugal, through the Gibraltar Strait, southern Spain and Morrocco as well as across the South of France and the central Med. Also note the lack of precip over central Europe thanks to high pressure. That high is re-routing all the moisture as it tries to stream in off the Atlantic. Like most things, the moisture rich Atlantic flow, driven along by a vigorous jet stream, will find the path of least resistance and when you’ve a block, that path is either side and by Wednesday on, there is two paths of least resistance. On up towards the UK and Northeast Atlantic and two, the primary track, which is through Iberia into the Med.

Until the block breaks down over central Europe, moisture rich storms will continue to sweep the southern route.

Unfortunately for those living in the typically milder, quieter south and southwest of Europe, the storminess may continue through much of March as the block shows no sign of truely breaking down. The return of milder and more unsettled weather over the UK will be short lived as colder air returns next week.

The latest ECMWF consistantly supports the indexes by drawing down arctic air next week, this will supress the jet to the south and so storminess continues for the areas getting battered now while winter returns to central and northern Europe. Be prepared Britain! As I keep saying, when you’ve got such a negative in both AO and NAO, despite it being march, it’s only a matter of time. We need to watch the end game as like we’re about to see in the US, the potential on there for a significant ‘winter-snapping event’ The atmosphere and pattern is primed and ready to fire..

Here’s the ECMWF showing the step back into winter next week.

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