North Dakota blizzard of 1977 (Image courtesy of kcorliss.areavoices.com)

Right up until the very last minute, things can change for better or worse with the storm system that will dive out of the Northern Plains into the Midwest with an eventual secondary low developing just off the North Carolina coast. This is a very complex situation coming up but as it stands, a swath of 8-12+ inches of snow will fall through North Dakota across Minnesota with a narrow corridor within the larger one of 12-18″, especially over north-central and eastern North Dakota extending into NW Minnesota. This will fall through Monday into Monday night from Bismarck to Indianapolis but I don’t want to forget about the folks up across Montana where right now, there are reports of thundersnow and tremendous snow rates. Wouldn’t be surprised to hear of 6-12″ accumulations between Great Falls-Billings perhaps to Glasgow over the course of tonight into Monday morning.

As for cities such as Bismarck, ND, Fargo, ND and Minneapolis, MN, you could all see as much as a foot of snow from this with potentially record setting amounts in spots, especially across North Dakota where snowstorms tend to produce lesser amounts due to a look of available moisture up here.

Once the system drops into the Mid-Missisippi Valley, the snow totals within the swath becomes somewhat less but with still an expected amount of 4-8″ through Chicago, 3-6″ for Indianapolis, this could be a disruptive snow still for Chicago and biggest of winter. Lesser amounts of 2-4″ through the Ohio Valley.

Here is expected snow totals for the Northern Plains according to weather.com

As well as big snow amounts up across the Northern Plains, the exposure and lack of protective hills from wind, means blowing and drifting will become an issue with likely closure of major arteries such as I-94 linking Montana-North Dakota-Minnesota.

Ok, now to the charts and firstly I want to show you the upper air and 500_ vort max which gives you an insight as to where your upper energy is.

Here is 24 hours from now and note the energy sliding across Montana like a bowling ball with impressive upper air speed maxes. This thing has a lot of energy and the moisture is ‘Pacific origin’ and there is a lot managing to get over the mountains, notice no other source such as the Gulf is involved, which there wouldn’t be anyway of course.

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By 48 hours the system is sliding across Nebraska and South Dakota, by this stage, it’s snowing to beat the band across North Dakota and the timing is likely to be later Monday into Tuesday if this GFS is correct. The trough in the East will slow the eastward progression of this system.

By 72 hours (Wednesday), the system should be positioned near the Missisippi River with the bulk of heaviest snow now focusing on Chicago, Indianapolis and the Ohio Valley while the Northern Plains digs out from it’s biggest snowstorm in years.

 

So, how much snow is the models printing out across the Northern Tier.

Here’s the GFS projections for the next 60 hours.

Notice the deep snow swath cutting from north-central ND down to south-central MN. This chart would keep biggest snow totals west of the Twin Cities and while a foot may still fall in the Metro, as much as 14-18″ may fall west of town. Also note the bullseye of perhaps 18, maybe 20″ for some place to the north of Bismarck!!

Phase Two

As the storm barrels through the Ohio Valley, the atmosphere will begin to pop a new, secondary low right along the North Carolina coastline.

The real complications come into play with regards to how much this secondary system deepens just offshore. Remembering that we’re now into March and the sun angle is higher and therefore strong, so there is competing factors at this time of year which needs to be considered. A lot of moisture will get thrown onshore from off the Atlantic, so moisture won’t be an issue and with a somewhat ‘limited’ amount of cold air, where the rain-snow line lines up, weill be key to the major population centres such as the Richmond-Washington-Baltimore and Philadelphia corridor. As much as 2 feet of snow could fall over the mountains of West Virginia, western Virginia and Garrett Co, Maryland.

A cold pocket aloft will push over the region but it’s how quickly this cold pocket can slide in from the west and catch up with the deepening offshore low which remains a question.

While there is no doubt about the heavy snows over inland mountains, it’s all about the big cities and how much snow may fall. This will depend upon how HEAVY, the precip falls. This is a situation in which depends on how quickly this thing can deepen. The quicker it deepens, the more cold air can be produced and therefore a likely bigger snow event for Washinton and Baltimore. This could range from a dissapointing 2-4 inches to perhaps a 1-foot blockbuster!

Here’s the 500_vort max chart by later Wednesday.

90 hrs

Check out this GFS surface pressure chart at 72 hours. Note the heavy precip focusing right over DC and Baltimore. Both Richmond to the south and Philly to the north, remain an even bigger question. Heaviest precip looks likely north and south of these cities with DC and Baltimore sitting right in a bullseye where the I-95 corridor is concerned. The biggest Mid-Atlantic amounts will be over the higher elevations with somewhere in the West Virginia or western Virginia mountains likely to see 24, perhaps 30+ inches from this.

Here are projection snow totals according to the GFS through the next 84 hours. Interestingly it shows a bullseye of easy a foot of snow right over Baltimore-Washington, impressive.

This heavy wet snow is likely to produce power loss and strong, gale-force winds driving onshore could also bring coastal flooding and beach erosion also.

Will have a new update on this situation later Monday with a video also. Stay tuned!
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