It’s been one of those winter’s where we’ve had the snow and had the cold, the whole thing I would say I’ve been disappointed with is, if only we could have gotten both together. The air mass sitting over the UK this weekend is the coldest of winter, certainly when you factor in the 850mb temperatures. Even with this, cloud cover has spoiled this. It’s all thanks to moisture being trapped in the mid and upper levels.

It’s not just us, the cloud deck is thick right across Europe. Any breaks in that cloud over the next few nights and you’ll realise just how cold this air mass is. The cloud is helping our days stay colder, some may fail to reach 0C today. Despite the cold air mass, a stronger late February sun would have helped bring most areas back up above freezing no matter how cold it was overnight. What’s interesting is how the temperature for pretty much everyone is falling below freezing at night despite thick cloud cover. This rarely happens and only with there is very cold air in place.

Throughout the week I’ve watched the model continuously drive the cold pool south of the UK into France and Spain where heavy, potentially crippling snows would impact the Pyrenees and bring a decent blanketing to the higher terrain of northern Spain. The models continue to support this.

It’s very stormy across the Med with cooler than normal temperatures and a lot of rainfall with high elevation snow. This is a classic negative NAO pattern.

While cold cloudy but dry this weekend with highs ranging from -1 to +3C, any bright or sunny skies will be over western parts while thicker clouds and the strongest SE breezes will be confined to the east, particularly south.

Nights continue cold with VERY COLD temperatures settling where there is breaks in cloud cover. In some respects, be grateful we have that cloud, as temperatures widely may have dipped to between -5 and -10C with the coldest spots getting down to -12, -13C.

Next week will see some slight changes as the cold core slides south but this won’t mean wet or even mild weather returns. I think we’ve got brighter weather returning and by day, temperatures may rebound but only modestly, perhaps to 4-5C in the mildest spots. This thing with next week’s pattern is a clearer, sunnier air mass means colder nights with potentially severe frosts.

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Here’s the ECMWF for today through Wednesday.

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tues

Wed

As you can clearly see, the cold upper low splits from the main upper flow and becomes a cut off. This heads south and the air mass within this cold vortex warms, looses cold with no connection, no arctic/Siberian air to feed it.

This is by far the most sustained spell of dry weather that I can remember really since last March when we had a record warm/dry period. Honestly, I can see no appreciable precipitation through the next 7 days which is quite amazing given the dry spell we’ve had all this week, really extending back to last Friday when high pressure first arrived.

So, while the cold trough heads south, becomes cut off low, you can see the ‘milder’ upper ridge rounding this upper low and setting up shop over the UK, this SHOULD bring brighter skies and yes you would certainly think warmer air. While this should be the case, the cold nights with penetrating rural frosts may make for slow warm-ups through the day with comfortable afternoon highs of 4-8C but the cold morning’s and sharp temperature falls by sundown means next week’s spell will be considered more for cold than mild.

So, with the milder air mass returning next week, is that it for winter 2012-13?

I want you to cast your eyes on these charts for late week!

Fri

Sat

Sun

Let the strongly negative NAO rule!

We got it from the east this week and it looks like we get it from the north next week with just as cold an air mass. With this northerly direction, this should be a brighter one and equally as dry so while we return to some very cold weather late week into the weekend, little precip comes down with it.

Despite heading towards March out of meteorological winter 2012-2013, do I think we’ve seen our coldest weather yet? It’s possible we haven’t.

That may promise to present us with subfreezing highs and bitterly cold night, especially if an arctic high settled overhead.

Lots of winter weather still on the playfield for the UK and Ireland. Enjoy this dry spell. It looks like there’s no end in sight and if this continues, this may have very positive effects for the upcoming spring and summer. We’re long overdue a drier, warmer summer right?

Will show you the JAMSTEC model and what it’s showing for spring and summer later this afternoon.

Have a good one.

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