The very active winter weather pattern continues across the Lower 48 as phase two of the most recent Plains storm takes shape along the Eastern Seaboard and is set to bring New England it’s 3rd weekend snowstorm in a row. So, while the Northeast gets into stormy weather once again, yet another storm system will sweep into the West Coast, this time into the Pacific Northwest but according to the models, the track looks very similar to the most recent storm which brought 12-18 inches of snow from Oklahoma to Missouri.

There is still uncertainty as to whether coastal New England gets all snow or a rain-snow mix. The I-95 corridor from Washington up to New York looks to be pretty much all rain. Even Boston will see a rain-snow mix but west of Boston and it’s likely to be cold enough for all snow.

What will happen is there’s a new upper disturbance forms at the base of the very trough the previous storm carved out. As this upper system forms over the Mid-South, this brings on coastal low pressure development and that system is what will work up the coast bringing wind, rain and inland snowfall.

Here’s a look at the latest setup for the next few days off the GFS.

The above 1000_500 thickness chart for 24 hours from now shows the trough carved out over the Midwest from the recent storm which is heading up through the Great Lakes is a weakened form. Note the big rains affecting the Southeast from southern Louisiana to Virginia. While the Southeast sees heavy, thundery rains with a transfer of energy offshore which develops a secondary low, there is a lot of energy streaming into the Pacific Northwest. This will dive into the central Rockies but as it does so, it presents the mountains of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West with significant snows. Major cities such as Spokane, Boise, Cheyenne and Salt Lake (possibly Denver), may all pick up a good 3-6, perhaps 6-12 inches of snow from this system later this weekend into early next week.

Here’s the 100_500 thicknesses by Sunday

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Notice the secondary low developing off the Carolinas and Virginia. Don’t underestimate how much rain falls from Louisiana to North Carolina over the next 48 hours. We could see significant flooding with 4-8 inch totals. While the focus begins to shift to the East Coast, you can see the system diving southeast into the central Rockies. This is a very similar situation to what we just saw. However there are some differences which I will show you.

Here’s by Monday. Notice the low heading up towards the Maritimes, we could see some last minute backside snows even into New York City as well as Boston as this exits but all in all, while there’s 6-12 inches for central Mass up into Vermont, New Hampshire and inland Maine, a coating may fall in NYC, perhaps 1-2 inches in Boston.

In all honesty, I think it’s the system diving into the central plains that’s worth watching. The difference between this storm and the last is that it stays further north, so the heaviest snows are likely to be up across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin with a decent 3-6 inch swath across Nebraska, perhaps Kansas with even some backside snows all the way to Texas as the trough carves out and the 540 lines sinks south. Chicago may need to watch this carefully.

In the above chart, note the 534 line all the way into Texas, some very cold air will get all the way to central Texas once this low pushes towards Chicago so yet another few inches of snow is possible for the TX panhandle while another 3-6 inches may accumulate over Oklahoma. As for Garden City to Kansas City, depending upon how this system regenerates once across the Rockies and how far south it tracks, we could see 4-8 inches from this. The track of this low will be crucial for Chicago as some models take this right across the Windy City while others have it tracking south, which could present the city with a sizeable snowstorm.

Here’s a quick look at the 500mb vort maxes which show the upper pattern nicely.

24 hrs

Note the energy heading from the Gulf of Alaska down into Washington. That’s our next West and Plains snowstorm.

48 hrs

72 hrs

By Monday, there is a lot of energy associated with this storm and heavy snows are likely breaking out across the Northern Plains. The fact the storm will be further north, means it probably will have less of a connection with the Gulf and so this may not be a prolific snow maker but it could still bring appreciable amounts.

Finally, here’s the GFS snow projections by 48 hours. Notice the big accumulations expected from the Cascades down to the Colorado Rockies.

By 96 hours or Tuesday, the model has deep snows across the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin with a decent swath of perhaps 3-6 covering Iowa, Illinois including Chicago.

BTW, The new European weeklies came out and it appears winter will last longer than many of us thought. It appears much of March will be cold and quite likely stormy too. Stay tuned for more on March later this weekend.

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