So, after the storm sweeps across Southern California tonight, it will head east, northeast through Colorado and it’s as the system crosses the Front Range that things getting interesting and wild. The circulation once out over the Plains will draw warmth and high amounts of liquid north. In the WARM SECTOR, expect not only bigtime rains across Texas but a batch of severe weather which could bring a tornado risk late Wednesday into Thursday.

As for snowfall, well it’s an area stretching from Denver to Des Moines which is most at risk for not only heavy snowfall but strong, gusty winds. Those winds combined with the heavy snow will produce blizzard conditions, likely shutting down long stretches of I-80 and I-90 through Kansas up into Nebraska.

Even before the snows reach the Plains, remember that heavy, blizzard-like conditions will impact the Sierra to Wasatch corridor with 2ft likely above 6,000 feet.

Here’s the cort height chart out by later Thursday. Note the upper low is centred over the central Plains.

The 850_temp_mslp_precip chart shows it well for Thursday afternoon with the storm drawing copious amounts of moisture north over Texas and right into the circulation where it wraps it into the cold side bring turns rains rapidly to snow.

So, just how much snow can be expected between Denver and Des Moines between through Thursday into Friday? I expect a solid swath of 4-8 inches but within that corridor, a further 8-12 inches is likely with local areas perhaps picking up 14-18 inches across particularly northern Kansas and Nebraska.

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How much rain is expected across Texas extending up into the Ohio Valley and across the South over the next 72 hours? Here’s the latest QPF chart.

Here’s day 1-3

While you think that’s a lot, take a look at what this model is showing through 7 days. Note 4+ inch rain are printed out from New Orleans all the way to South Carolina with 5-6 inch amounts through central Georgia! This is certainly a region that could use plenty of this.

Back to the snow aspect.. This will be one of the biggest blizzards in quite a few years for Kansas and Nebraska and while spots see upwards of 18 inches of snow, accompanied by thundersnow perhaps, we could see winds gust beyond 60 mph whicvh could generate drifts 4-8 feet. Major trans-plains routes such as I-80 and I-90 will likely shut.

Here’s the latest GFS snow preojections through the next 60 hours.

Note the bullseye is centred over Kansas, this GFS chart is likely underdone as I think we’ll see 14-18 inches extend from Kansas up into Nebraska with perhaps a foot accumulating near Des Moines. It really wouldn’t surprise me if there was a peak snow total from this storm near 24 inches somewhere in northern Kansas or southern Nebraska with reports of 10 foot drifts.

More updates to come later Wednesday. Stay tuned.

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