While I am beginning to look towards spring and what are weather may have in store, there is increasing evidence to suggest a much drier pattern is setting up as we progress towards March. One key question for me is will this be a long lived shift to drier or temporary. We may also see a pattern which trends drier but with spells of unsettled. In other words wet/dry cycles which are intermittent every couple of weeks or so.

This has significant importance to our weather for further down the road and will likely also shape our upcoming summer. As a heads up, I should be bringing you a spring forecast within the next 10 days or so and my summer forecast should be available late in March.

The trigger to a year of flooding rains in my opinion was the onset of a weak El Nino which altered the atmosphere and steering flow during March when record warmth impacted northern parts of the UK. Few realised what was lurking for April and pretty much all of 2012 except for the first 3 months. I knew an El Nino was coming on and always regret not recognising the wetter pattern that would bring for the UK. The atmosphere reacted to the warming of the equatorial Pacific. I believe the rainfall, which kicked in just as many parts of England declared a hosepipe ban, right around April 1st, was helped by a super warm AMO and a warmer than normal AMO for several years now along with a colder than normal Pacific (cold PDO), has helped bring a series of wet summers. The warm AMO has also arguably prompted more frequent negative NAO’s and with the exception to last winter, aided in bringing us colder winters. The return to a weak El Nino and heavy rains came to the UK following back to back La Ninas. The La Ninas led to our driest 2 year period on record.

Modelling since LAST WEEKEND has been showing higher pressure over the UK and for the first time really since last April, it appears that higher pressure wants to hold firm over the UK from now into early March. Whether this brings cold or mild, it’s important now to look beyond as what happens now at the transition period from winter to spring, will shape what kind of spring and summer we get.

So, while we all know the cold is coming, you’ve been told now for 10 days but this almost means nothing. It’s the amount of water we see fall from the sky over the next few weeks which is now turning my focus.

The ECMWF for several days now now been hinting at a longer term settled period with high pressure dominating. The El Nino never really came on in the end and sat in a largely neutral state. If a La Nina happened to develop through late spring and summer, then our pattern may wind up drier and now that the atmosphere has settled since the flip from Nina to El Nino early last spring, there is more likihood of drier times ahead, not wetter or a continuation of wet. This would be potentially good news for summer.

Here’s the the latest ECMWF into next week..

Fri

Sun

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Thurs

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