Courtesy of Mark Vogan
From New England to Old England, the very same storm system which brought havoc to the Northeast US Friday into Saturday has been making it’s way across the North Atlantic over the past 72 hours and will be making it’s presence felt on the other side of the pond tonight into Wednesday morning. After departing US shores Saturday, wind, rain, snow and freezing rain will bring a potentially disruptive morning commute across many parts of the United Kingdom Wednesday.
Thankfully, all the fine ingredients which produced over 3 feet of snow, 80 mph winds, storm surge and the loss of power to over 600,000 across the Northeast, this system won’t be anything like that for the UK, however while we may not see the same severity, 60-70 mph wind gusts along the coast and near blizzard conditions still await.
The system has significantly changed character, loosing any type of semi-warm core and high concentration of energy fed by tropical and cold, continental air. Ex-storm Nemo or Blizzard of 2013 will slide an occludded frontal system across Ireland tonight bringing wind and rain before crossing the Irish Sea, where it will meet colder air sitting over the British Isles. As this moisture runs into the cold air, rain will readily turn over to snow and with strong, gusty winds, blowing and drifting may become a problem, especially up over higher ground.
Here is stunning satellite image of the storm at it’s most mature as it brought blizzard conditions from New York up to Maine. Note the eye-like feature!
Satellite image courtesy of NOAA/Wunderground
What’s interesting is the fact that this system can be tracked from it’s peak off the US coast last weekend and seen undergoing it’s transition as it crosses the North Atlantic and then gets an energy boost like many Trans-North Atlantic depressions get once they get southeast of Greenland as they ingest colder air off the iceap and draw warmer, sub-tropical air from the Azores.
Check out this re-analysis mean sea level pressure/850hpa wind speed charts off the ECMWF which go back to Saturday and end tomorrow. Note the low track from the US towards Iceland and the trailing front swinging into the UK tomorrow.
Saturday
Courtesy of ECMWF
Sunday
Courtesy of ECMWF
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Courtesy of ECMWF
As the low approaches Iceland it re-intensifies. While the low itself never makes impact on the UK, it’s potent frontal system sure will.
A cold trough has been sitting over the UK much of February and with a still-active Atlantic pattern, rain, sleet and snow has been a common feature in our weather. Tomorrow will be no different.
Here is the Met Office pressure chart for midday Wednesday.
Courtesy of The Met Office
Note the cold 850 temperatures off the ECMWF for tomorrow, this represents the cold air in place which will turn rain to snow over northern and central areas but notice the milder air being pushed into the UK on the backside of the front. Once the initial heavy snow band pushes through, much milder air follows bringing a milder end to the workweek and likely the mildest air in at least 12 days.
Courtesy of ECMWF
Heavy snow is expected all levels of western and central Scotland as well as a large portion of northern, possibly central England. While Hamden, Connecticut got buried beneath 40 inches of snow, our hills may see about 4 inches, locally 6 while lower elevations of the M8 corridor between Glasgow and Edinburgh and the M6 corridor between Carlisle and Manchester may see around an inch, perhaps 2 in a few spots.
Here’s the latest GFS snowfall forecast through the next 48 hours.
Courtesy of WeatherBELL Models
Hope to get some photos and video of the snow for you tomorrow morning!
Follow my weather updates on Twitter @MarkVogan
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I love snow and have hardly had any in the south east england, dartford kent. is there anymore on its way. last year was actually snowed in for a week with nearly 7inchs. x