One of, if not thee deepest low of winter thus far is expected to pass to the NW of Scotland with pressure at or below 952mb tonight into Wednesday morning. This storm promises to bring quite the blow to Northwestern Scotland and especially the Outer Hebrides tonight. Models have the low tracking northeast and making it’s closest approach to Cape Wrath during the overnight. This tightly would system has it’s strongest winds on the west and south side and this means the strongest winds cross Scotland with the exposed Western Isles and Orkney to the north of the mainland, bearing the brunt.

The whole country should get a good ole westerly gale tonight with 60 mph gusts racing through the Central Lowlands. These gusts are sure to rattle west exposure windows tonight and tear down loose branches and perhaps weak trees struggling to hold root in the saturated ground but the real test of structural and .. endurance comes to those hardy soils living on the exposed Outer Hebrides. Sustained winds should crank to between 45-55 mph, accompanied by gusts to 80 mph with an odd, remote gust topping 90 mph.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Flooding Rain For Southern England, Wales

For those living across the South of England and South Wales, tonight will be a horrid night to be travelling as heavy and persistent rain driven in on a stiff southwest wind will make it dangerous to be out and about. Watermay quickly pool on roadways and for some across parts of Cornwall and Devon extending into Somerset and Dorset may become impassable given the heaviness and persistency of tonight’s rain on already saturated ground. Flooding is highly likely across a broader area of the South with a further inch, maybe locally 2, possible, following heavy rains of the past few days.

Late Week System To Bring Return of Cold Air

Throughout Wednesday, it’s a blustery day with frequent heavy showers piling in from the Atlantic on whipping backside winds from the low. It will also feel cooler, especially in the north. Heavy and frequent showers will mainly affect central and southern Scotland, northern England extending into the Midlands and north Wales.

Another system arrives later Thursday and will last through early Friday but by Friday, it’s the backside of the next system which will draw down much chillier air. This air may bring snow showers down over Scotland.

Here’s the ECMWF for today and then Saturday.

Today

Saturday

Fight Next Week Between Ridge & Trough

Next week remains very interesting on the ECMWF model as a trough will fight the Azores high in taking control of UK and Irish airspace. While the trough wins this weekend, as you can see, another system comes in off the Atlantic as the flow flatten but then re-amps on the backside of that low. It’s like the NAO is trying to go negative towards the start of week two.

Check out the below charts to see what I’m meaning. Notice the fight between the Europe trough and the Azores High, while the ridge gets back into the UK as a new wave comes across, the trough wins out on the backside but what appears obvious is the fact the as we push towards day 10, the trough becomes strongest and the ridge continues to head west and north towards our favour position… GREENLAND! If this happens which I strongly believe it will, then prepare for the return of winter, with the start coming through next week but a bigger deal folloows the week after!

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

To reiterate my point and to prove to you that this is not just me ‘hoping’ and going by these individial runs, here’s more evidence to back this up.. The ensembles have been all over a return to negative in both AO and NAO since early last week.

AO

NAO

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]