This winter amazingly makes it 3 out of 4 in which the majority of the UK is covered by snow and the cold pattern lasts 10 or more days. This comes after many dismissed this winter as being anything like the two prior to last, based purely on last winter and a bias towards warm. As for much of Europe, this makes 4 out of 4 for a sustained period in which severe winter weather has dominated. I think many living in Europe will have forgotten what a mild winter is like with memories of the warm 2007-08 winter likely long gone.

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My ideas on this winter were layed out before you long before any cold arrived and I believe my ideas have been justified. It amazes me how quick many of us right off winter, before it even starts and as we turned mild back around December 10th, many said that was it. More often than not, when we ‘want’ it to snow and turn cold, it doesn’t but when we step back and let nature do her thing, I can come. I saw this coming long beforehand simply because the evidence in the long term global pattern suggested so. Exact timing of cold and how long it will last is impossible to forecast but when you get major stratospheric warming events, often you can count 10-14 days before the results arrive. This was no fluke or a guess and yes I learned a lot from last winter’s mistakes. Will there be more winter to come during February and March? I believe there will be but it remains very much open as to how much more winter we have down the road.

While the majority of the UK escaped the snow back in early December despite it being fairly cold, it’s interesting to note that we have managed to escape MAJOR cold in both the early December chill and with this much snowier, current pattern of the past 10-14 days. How so? Had we gotten the snow of this time around and the cold high of early December, then temperatures experienced back in winters 2009-10 and 2010-11 would have been repeated. The coldest temperatures this winter have come in ‘isolated’ fashion in the small clear slots which developed during the overnight. Persistency in cloud, wind and snow has kept the cold at bay as no high has settled in over the snow cover.

While many areas are buried, the majority of the ‘buried’ areas are up and down the eastern side of the UK where east winds as well as northbound fronts have brought the snows frequently. Central and southern areas have also been hit hard. However, here in the western Central Belt, we live in somewhat of a snow hole. The fronts have bypassed us to the west and south and the southeast rather than east wind, has meant hills to our south protected us from the snow.

Here’s the view looking south from my house this morning.

Looking north. Nice covering over the Campsies right enough!

However, this is likely to change tonight and tomorrow night as clearer skies develop and winds turn light. Scotland should stay somewhat milder due to cloudier skies but much of England and Wales look to turn very cold.

The GFS has been adament in bringing the coldest night to the UK just prior to this pattern flipping by this weekend.

Here’s tonight.

Tomorrow night.

A couple of nights ago the temperature fell to -12.2C at Cambridge and last week it fell to -13.4C at Norfolk. The next couple of nights should push or exceed these values with clearer skies more widely over the snow fields.

By Friday, the next and final blast of snow comes on the leading edge of a front that will finally kick this cold trough east. This snow, like the rest will bring travel disruption and a further few inches to many who have already picked up quite a covering but it’s once this system pushes across the country, we see big changes. While it’s mainly snow later on Friday after a very cold start, rain follows during Saturday as warmer air starts to erode the deep column of cold sitting over the UK as well as parts of Ireland.

One key to this game changer is a deepening trough out over the North Atlantic. This promotes height rises over western Europe which kicks the trough east but through time, as the milder air becomes more established thanks to the strong southwest flow, the snow cover will melt across a good chunk of Europe, except for eastern and central parts.

Here’s the GFS snowdepth chart by next Thursday.

For those living over the mainland of the continent, despite it warming up, your snow won’t melt all that fast unless you live right on the coast. For those of you in the Low Countries and up into Denmark, your winter wonderland continues through next week..

Here are some of the largest snow depths currently over the UK according to the Met Office.

 

Location	Area	Elevation	Depth (cm)
Little Rissington	Gloucestershire	210	30
Aboyne	Aberdeenshire	140	27
Redesdale Camp	Northumberland	211	26
Albemarle	Northumberland	142	23
Spadeadam	Cumbria	285	21
Dunkeswell Aerodrome	Devon	252	21
Lough Fea	Londonderry	225	19
Loftus	Cleveland	158	18
Aviemore	Inverness-Shire	228	16

The reason I show you this short list is because, with having this much snow on the ground, this doesn’t just disappear. Warmer air will chip away at this through the early part of the week and heavy heavy rain won’t eradicate it fast. What will happen like in any other cold and snowy period, is it turns sloppy and shushy with ice forming on frozen ground.

Where you or your surrounding hills have snow, watch out for urban flooding. Ice, dense fog will also become a hazard as the warm air rides over the snow.

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